WITH the PML-N ruling out any major seat adjustments in the upcoming polls, the battle for Punjab is very much on. In contrast to the 2018 election, where Punjab was the PTI-PML-N battleground, bets on whether any one party will emerge a big winner in the province in the next election are difficult to place in view of today’s political realities. The PTI may appear a shell of its former self, with no obvious candidates, but its vote bank remains intact — going by how it trounced the PML-N in the by-elections held after Imran Khan’s ouster as prime minister. The entry of the newly created IPP, the handful of constituencies that are the PPP’s stronghold in Punjab, and the increasingly popular presence of the TLP point to a divided province, where electoral loyalties, anti-establishment sentiment and perception will determine the winners.

This makes the PML-N’s challenge even more pronounced. Though a part of the PDM ruling alliance, the PML-N has been the face of the government with Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister and key N-leaguers dominating the cabinet. Rising costs, inflation and the months-long bungling of the IMF deal have cost the PML-N in the eyes of a public battered by growing economic hardships. To add to that, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s continued absence from Pakistan has dealt a major blow to perceptions about the party. The question of his return, and of who will lead the party if and when he does return, remains unanswered. Power dynamics within the Sharif family have added to the confusion. If the PML-N manages to bag a major number of seats, will it put Maryam Sharif, Shehbaz Sharif or Nawaz Sharif in the driving seat? To top it off, PML-N’s anti-establishment narrative, which had struck a chord with its support base over the last few years, is practically non-existent. It is widely believed that Shehbaz Sharif became prime minister with the blessings of the kingmakers, a reality at odds with the narrative of the elder Sharif. These challenges make the coming weeks a decisive period for the PML-N, where it must decide on the key issues of Nawaz Sharif’s return, iron out family politics and set its election narrative. Without addressing these points, even with the clear advantage the PML-N has over PTI in the coming election, a major victory looks out of reach.

Published in Dawn, July 16th, 2023