AS the nation begins to enter election mode, the rulers have made it clear that the next polls will be based on the 2017 census. While this decision has been decried by some government allies, such as the MQM, the inconvenient truth is that this late in the day, the government has little choice — mainly because of its own lethargy — but to hold polls as per the 2017 numbers. Any other option may end up delaying elections, which is unacceptable.

The federal law minister announced on Monday that “if” the seventh census is not approved then constituencies will be drawn up on the basis of the previous head count’s figures. This is largely a foregone conclusion as the legal and constitutional process of notifying the latest census and delimiting new constituencies would clash with the electoral time line.

Some media reports on Tuesday indicated that the National Assembly could be dissolved early, though these were denied by the information minister. Regardless, elections would be due no later than November.

This means there is not enough time to notify the results, make the requisite constitutional amendment, and delimit new constituencies.

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Independent observers also concur that polls will have to be held on the basis of the 2017 numbers. This is because even if the government notifies the 2023 results today, it will have to amend the Constitution under Article 51(3) and thereafter delimit new constituencies.

As mentioned, the government does not have the time to carry out these legal processes, while a caretaker set-up does not have the mandate to make constitutional amendments. Therefore, despite the reservations of the MQM, the fact is that there are few good options other than holding polls based on the 2017 numbers.

Of course, the rulers must shoulder the blame for this predicament. Apart from resource allocation, updated census numbers are essential for the democratic process, yet the multibillion-rupee exercise will be of no utility in the upcoming polls.

When provisional census numbers had been finalised two months ago, the government should have gone ahead and notified the results so that the legal process could have begun.

Perhaps the rulers feared they lacked the numbers in a rump parliament to make the requisite constitutional changes. Because of this mismanagement, voters in provinces where the population has grown will not get increased representation in parliament.

However, the fresh census controversy notwithstanding, under no circumstances should the polls be delayed any further. Already the Punjab and KP caretakers are operating beyond their constitutional tenures. This must not be replicated in Sindh, Balochistan and the centre.

The only way out of the current quagmire is for free and fair polls to be held on time, bringing in a new dispensation with a fresh mandate to govern.

Published in Dawn, July 19th, 2023