ISLAMABAD: US scholar Elizabeth Threlkeld here on Friday highlighted the diminishing effectiveness of conflict management between India and Pakistan, attributing it to rapid technological advancements and the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China.

Speaking at a roundtable organised by the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Threlkeld, who serves as the director of the South Asia Programme at the Stimson Centre, voiced her concerns over the stability of the already volatile region.

She characterised the global scenario as a challenging and unpredictable game plagued by unclear rules, evolving powerful technologies and obsolete dispute resolution methods.

She said strategic tensions were being fueled by increasingly advanced and complex weapon technologies coupled with a lack of mutual understanding of red lines.

Highlighting the inefficacy of current crisis management strategies and confidence building measures (CBMs), Threlkeld pointed out their failure to adapt to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. The US-China rivalry, she asserted, was further complicating collaboration on critical regional issues.

She cited the US perception of China’s role in the Balakot conflict between India and Pakistan as counterproductive, reflecting the intricate dynamics at play.

Threlkeld raised specific concerns regarding the traditional approach to crisis management in South Asia, now rendered inadequate due to the unforeseen challenges posed by technological advancements.

The deployment of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs) and issues related to strategic stability, authority degradation, AI and other emerging technologies are major causes for alarm.

Additionally, the shift from a state of recessed deterrence to active deterrence in military doctrines is escalating tensions in the region.

Her discussion underscored the need for a re-evaluation of conflict management strategies in South Asia, taking into account the rapidly evolving technological landscape and the complex interplay of global powers.

As the US-China rivalry intensifies, its implications on regional stability and conflict resolution become increasingly significant, warranting urgent attention from the international community.

She added that India was unlikely to provide active military support against China on the Taiwan issue. Rather, she foresaw India’s involvement as more passive, aimed at contributing to the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region through deterrence strategies and logistical support under several agreements.

She said constructive dialogue remained the most viable path forward for India and Pakistan.

CISS Director Research Dr Atia Ali Kazmi said India’s refusal to assist the US in the South China Sea demonstrated the risk of putting all eggs in one basket in complex geopolitical scenarios. She underscored the importance of the US acknowledging Pakistan as a responsible nuclear state and a vital player in the international community.

CISS Executive Director retired ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi was of the view that the Taiwan issue was unlikely to escalate into a military conflict or war.

Published in Dawn, December 9th, 2023