JERUSALEM: With most Gazans displaced and Israeli forces pushing deeper into the Palestinian territory, UN officials and Middle East leaders have raised the spectre of its residents being expelled to Egypt.

That scenario evokes dark historical memories of what the Arab world calls the “Nakba” or catastrophe — the mass displacement of Palestinians during Israel’s creation 75 years ago.

More than two months of fighting have forced nearly 85 per cent of Gaza’s 2.4 million people from their homes, according to the United Nations, with many fleeing to the now overcrowded far-southern city of Rafah.

Filippo Grandi, head of the UN refugee agency, warned that pushing Gazans across the frontier would be “extremely destabilising for Egypt”.

“It’s very important to insist that this evacuation of people beyond (the border) must not be promoted, must not be advanced, forced,” the UNHCR chief told journalists in Geneva. UN chief Antonio Guterres had also warned of “increased pressure for mass displacement into Egypt”.

Under ICC statute, forcible transfer of population is considered crime against humanity

His remarks echoed those of Philippe Lazzarini, head of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, who warned “the developments we are witnessing point to attempts to move Palestinians into Egypt”.

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Egypt, Jordan and Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas have previously warned against attempts to force Gazans out of the coastal territory, while Israel and the United States have dismissed the idea.

Is Israel aiming to push Gazans out?

“There is not, never was and never will be an Israeli plan to move the residents of Gaza to Egypt,” a spokesperson for the Israeli defence ministry office responsible for Palestinian civilian affairs said.

Some members of the Israeli government have, however, publicly supported the idea of Gazans leaving the Palestinian territory en masse.

Writing on Facebook last month, extreme-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said he welcomed the “voluntary migration of Gaza Arabs to the countries of the world”.

Israeli Intelligence Minister Gila Gamliel said that one “option” after the end of aggression would be “to promote the voluntary resettlement of Palestinians in Gaza, for humanitarian reasons, outside of the Strip”.

Former Israeli officials have suggested in TV interviews that Egypt could build vast tent cities in its Sinai desert, with international funding.

What’s the legal view?

Expelling civilians is banned under the Geneva Conventions, which form the core of international humanitarian law.

“If it’s done in the context of an armed conflict, then it’s a war crime,” said Sheila Paylan, an international human rights lawyer and former adviser to the United Nations.

Under the statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), the “deportation or forcible transfer of population” is listed as a crime against humanity.

Leaders do not have to declare that people must leave in order for it to count as a forced transfer, Paylan said: “If you make the conditions impossible for people to live, then they have no choice.”

There have been multiple successful convictions over the forcible displacement of civilians, she said, including at the ICC, the International Criminal Tribu­nal for the former Yugoslavia, and the Special Court of Sierra Leone.

Days after the outbreak of unrest, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said Gazans must “stay steadfast and remain on their land”.

Speaking at the same Doha conference as the UN chief, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi decried Israel’s “systematic effort… to empty Gaza (of) its people”.

Published in Dawn, December 15th, 2023