WASHINGTON: In a critical juncture for President Joe Biden, the Gaza conflict emerges as a pivotal factor in his declining approval ratings.

Despite a flourishing economy, recent polls reveal a challenging landscape for the Biden administration, with only a 39 per cent approval rating — a historic low compared to his predecessors at this point in their first terms.

A New York Times/Siena College poll sheds light on a significant disapproval of the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict. Younger Americans, a traditionally Democratic demographic, stand out, with nearly three-quarters in the 18 to 29 age group expressing discontent with the administration’s response to the war in Gaza. This demographic shift is concerning for Biden, contributing to the overall decline in his approval ratings.

The Washington Post adds complexity, cautioning that the Israel-Gaza conflict is “politically dicey” for President Biden.

While Democrats overall approve of him by a 62-point margin, this approval drops to 36 points concerning the Middle East conflict. Additionally, substantial portions of Black and Hispanic voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the situation, posing further challenges.

Americans in the 18 to 29 age group, considered supporters of the Democratic party, expressed discontent with the administration’s handling of the crisis

A BBC report published on Tuesday noted that “an increasing number of young Democratic voters appear to be breaking with President Biden over the issue of Israel and the conflict in Gaza”.

The BBC reviewed polling research and spoke to six young Democratic voters and organisers from across the US. “Data and interviews appear to show a growing sense of political discord among young voters ahead of the 2024 election,” the report added.

Calling it a cause for concern for Democrats, the BBC warned that “their opposition to Biden’s policies could threaten a key pillar of support that the elder statesman leaned on during the 2020 election”.

The Gaza conflict’s impact on US politics is multi-faceted, influencing public opinion, party dynamics, and diplomatic strategies. The fighting has become a focal point for evaluating President Biden’s leadership, revealing fault lines within his support base.

The dissatisfaction among younger Democrats underscores a generational divide, emphasising the need for nuanced policy approaches to international conflicts.

The complex nature of the conflict has made it challenging for the Biden administration to navigate and maintain a unified stance within its diverse voter base.

Internationally, the handling of the Gaza crisis has implications for US diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. Some Americans also warn that the fighting may further radicalise Arab and other Muslim youth across the globe.

The delicate balance between supporting Israel and addressing concerns about Palestinian rights requires a nuanced approach. The Biden administration’s stance on this issue not only influences domestic politics but also shapes perceptions of US foreign policy globally.

Media’s role

The media’s role in framing the narrative surrounding the Gaza conflict adds an extra layer of complexity. The emphasis on polls and public opinion contributes to the scrutiny of Biden’s leadership during this crisis, potentially overshadowing other policy achievements.

As the 2024 election looms, the Gaza conflict’s impact on US electoral politics is being debated, especially in the media, with some outlets speculating on its potential impact on electoral dynamics. How effectively Biden addresses concerns stemming from the conflict and communicates a coherent strategy will play a pivotal role in shaping the political landscape in the lead-up to the election.

Biden’s approval ratings, persistently low over the past months, have triggered internal meetings at the White House to address concerns over messaging, particularly related to Biden’s age and accomplishments. Despite positive economic indicators such as low unemployment (3.7 per cent) and falling inflation, a disconnect between Biden’s message and public perception remains.

Some attribute this gap to a range of concerns, including student loans, rising rents, and the divisive Israel-Hamas conflict.

Ivan Zapien, a former Democratic National Committee official, expressed frustration over the situation, but said he remained optimistic about Biden’s chances.

The media’s focus on polls indicating Biden trailing adds to the frustration among his allies, who argue that polls showing his lead are being overlooked. The White House downplays the significance of polls this far from the election, pointing to past instances where pundits underestimated Biden.

Meanwhile, former president Donald Trump’s increasing lead in Republican polls poses a potential threat. Despite legal challenges, Trump’s potential removal from the Colorado primary ballot may fuel his narrative of being targeted by Democrats and institutions.

Biden’s campaign actively criticises Trump, particularly seizing on controversial remarks. However, as the spotlight shifts to the 2024 choices, Democratic leaders express confidence in Biden’s victory, emphasising the distinct policy differences between the two candidates.

Senator Chris Van Hollen (a Maryland Democrat) believes that once voters compare Biden with Trump, the tide will turn in favour of the current president. Another Democrat, Senator Elizabeth Warren, remains confident of Biden’s victory, citing the distinct policy differences between the two candidates.

Despite the outward confidence, Congressional Democrats, in recent statements, have acknowledged the need to highlight Biden’s accomplishments ahead of the election.

Published in Dawn, December 28th, 2023