London: With mayoral elections scheduled to take place in May 2024, Mayor of London Sadiq Khan’s chances of securing a third term in office are threatened by changes to the electoral system.

The Guardian quoted Mr Khan’s team as saying that though he has a comfortable lead over Conservative candidate Susan Hall in the polls, the government’s decision to change the electoral system from supplementary to first past the post (FPTP) could grant Ms Hall a narrow win.

In elections held under FPTP, each voter makes a mark next to one candidate on the ballot paper, and the candidate who wins the most votes in each constituency is elected. In the supplementary vote system, which was scrapped with the passage of the Electoral Reforms Act 2022, voters are limited to a first and second preference choice.

A voter marks a cross in one column for their first preference candidate. They mark another cross in a second column for their second preference if they wish to do so.

Another change is the introduction of mandatory photo ID for voting. New polling commissioned by the mayor’s office showed that although 74 per cent of Londoners are aware of the rules, for younger voters the awareness falls to 53pc. It was also lower in some minority ethnic groups.

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The latest London mayoral voting intention survey conducted on October 12-17 found Mr Khan a full 25 points ahead of his Conservative challenger Susan Hall, by 50pc to 25pc.

The London mayoral election takes place every four years. Mr Khan from the Labour party won the election in 2016, becoming the first Muslim mayor and ethnic minority mayor of London. He was re-elected in 2021. There are no limitations on the number of terms a mayor may serve.

“This year will be a year of decision – there is every chance we could see Donald Trump in the White House, Suella Braverman in No 10, and Susan Hall in London’s City Hall,” Mr Khan told The Guardian. Mr Khan said the Conservatives had changed the voting system in “a deliberate effort to depress turnout [which] could open the door to a hard-right victory”.

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He directly compared Ms Hall to Donald Trump and Geert Wilders, whose far-right, anti-Islam Party for Freedom won the most seats in the Dutch parliament in November.

“The mayoral election will likely be the first test of whether the extreme right can be held back,” Khan said. “Following Geert Wilders’ victory on our doorstep we know the far right are a real threat in European elections, and the prospects of another Donald Trump presidency could be even worse than his disastrous first term.”

He added: “Here in London, one of the most diverse cities in the world, my Tory opponent in the mayoral election in May is someone who has repeatedly promoted divisive and racist content on social media, while attacking women and the Black community.”

Conservative mayoral Candidate Ms Hall is a controversial figure. A Donald Trump supporter and staunch Brexit backer, Ms Hall frequently appears on right-wing television channels to criticise Mr Khan. Some months earlier, a poll found that most Londoners think Ms Hall’s social media activity is racist.

In the past, Ms Hall retweeted a message from far-right activist Katie Hopkins that called Mr Khan “the nipple height mayor of Londonistan”, adding: “Thank you Katie!” Londonistan is a common Islamophobic term used by the far right to claim London has been taken over by Muslims.

Published in Dawn, January 2nd, 2024