US President Joe Biden is not cool enough, not young enough, not pro-Palestinian enough. Young Democrats are disappointed by his approach to Gaza, while older voters remain grumpy about inflation. Political forecasters are therefore predicting a win for Donald Trump in this year’s US election. So it’s time to ask, what would a Trump win mean for Pakistan?

Pakistanis may have a misplaced nostalgia for the Trump era, recalling the brom­a­nce with Imran Khan and the offer to mediate between Islamabad and Delhi over Kashmir. But that reset of ties in 2019 (only a year after Trump had accused Pak­istan of ‘lies and deceit’) was transactional, and rooted in the context of Pakistani support engaging with the Afghan Taliban to facilitate a US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

US-Pakistan relations continue to be de­­fined by security considerations but times have changed and a second-term Trump administration (much like another Biden administration) is unlikely to prioritise ties. The US’s key interests have been that nuclear-armed Pakistan is not irreversibly destabilised, that India-Pakistan tensions do not devolve into conflict, and that the region does not become a hotbed of global militancy. Nominally, Washington would also like to prevent Pakistan from falling entirely into China’s sphere of influence.

In 2024, a destabilised Pakistan still poses less threat than a nuclear-armed Russia and a Middle Eastern conflagration. The US has also learned that containment is a good option when it comes to ‘troublesome’ states (think Afghanistan, Iran, Syria). India’s growing global clout also means that Washington will increasingly turn to New Delhi to manage regional security (and the Kashmir issue will be a non-starter with Trump, who is likely to look favourably on ending the Russia-Ukraine war by letting Moscow gain control of several Ukrainian territories). And given that the US recently assessed Al Qaeda and the Islamic State group to be at their weakest since inception, the bogeyman of militancy is a less compelling reason for sustained US engagement with Pakistan. All that remai­­ns is a battle for regional influence with China.

Trumpian economic pressure on China would not be good for Pakistan.

In that context, as Aizaz Chaudhry recently pointed out, the US has already identified India as the strategic partner to counterbalance China. Moreover, a Trump administration’s power games with China will be less about global influence and more about economic dominance. With an ‘Ame­rica First’ mentality, Trump will not cosy up with China’s allies, but will instead focus on penalising Chinese companies by imposing skyrocketing tariffs on Chinese imports.

Trumpian economic pressure on China would not be good news for Pakistan. Pak­is­tani goods would be subject to the same tariffs placed on foreign imports, which is pro­b­lematic given that the US remains Pa­­­k­­istan’s largest export destination by a long stretch. Further economic uncertainty for China would also mean a greater emphasis by Beijing on debt collection, and so more pressure on Pakistan in the CPEC context.

Trump is likely to cut military aid to Ukraine, resume ties with Russia, threaten to quit Nato or heighten US-Europe tensions by demanding Nato allies increase defence expenditure. These developments would lead to global political and economic uncertainty resulting in a deprioritisation and neglect of the Global South’s challenges overall.

Trump would also be likely to double down on US backing for Israel. This may set the stage for a US-Israel face off with Middle Eastern countries backed by Gulf states (compelled to shelve plans for reconciling with Israel) and tangentially supported by China. This would create some opportunities for Pakistan to invigorate ties with Gulf allies and other key Muslim states.

Beyond these considerations, an­­other Trump term would have negative implications for Pakistan. Trump is a climate change denier, and is un­­likely to take bold strides to fund the Loss and Damage Fund or drive other climate finance initiatives. Climate-vulnerable countries like Pakistan will be among the worst-hit if the next US president takes climate change off the global agenda.

Trump’s toxic rhetoric on immigration, too, will disadvantage Pakistanis. He will embolden right-wing, anti-immigrant parties across the developed world, leading to further curbs on legal immigration. Given the growing number of conflict, climate and economic migrants from Pakistan, further Western hostility to immigration would be damaging, limiting future remittances that help build resilience in our economy against shocks.

In sum, a Trump presidency would help the country’s powers that be in terms of turning a blind eye to authoritarian tendencies but it would spell more misery for the people, who need strong global leaders committed to tackling the climate crisis, addressing economic inequality and defending human rights.

The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.

X: @humayusuf

Published in Dawn, January 8th, 2024