The decreasing Chinese population

With the number of babies in free fall — fewer than 10m were born in 2022, compared with around 16m in 2012 — China is headed toward a demographic collapse. China’s population, now around 1.4bn, is likely to drop to just around half a billion by 2100, according to some projections. Many young people in China, disheartened by a weak economy and high unemployment, seek alternatives to their parents’ lives. Many women view the prescribed formula of marriage and children as a raw deal. When Beijing said it would abolish its 35-year-old one-child policy in 2015, officials expected a baby boom. Instead, they got a baby bust. New maternity wards were built only to close a few years later. Sales of baby-care products have dropped. Businesses that focused on babies now target seniors. New preschools struggle to fill classrooms and many have closed.

(Adapted from “China Is Pressing Women To Have More Babies. Many Are Saying No,” by Liyan Qi and Shen Lu, published on January 2, 2024, by The Wall Street Journal)

Historic low CFA passing rate

The pass rate for the first level of the chartered financial analyst exam fell further below its historic average. It’s another sign that test-takers are still dealing with pandemic-related disruptions that became common after the Covid-19 outbreak. In November, 35pc of candidates passed the Level I test, down from 37pc for those who sat for the exam in August and 39pc in May, the CFA Institute said last week. That’s the lowest pass rate since 2021, when results hit record lows across all levels of the CFA exam as performance was hurt by the pandemic. It’s also below the 40pc average for the past decade, according to the institute. The CFA Institute continues to attribute the Level I pass-rate decline to exam deferrals. Candidates are more likely to benefit from their earlier studies and retain their study material if they stay on schedule for taking their tests, according to the institute.

(Adapted from “CFA Level I Pass Rate Drops To 35%,” by Katherine Doherty, published on January 10, 2024, by Bloomberg)

India under Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s next election campaign will focus on his economic record – but what do the figures show? During his two terms in office, India has, on average, been one of the fastest-growing large economies. It is now firmly in the sights of international investors, consultants and trading partners, which would have been implausible a decade ago. But India’s growth rate was even higher from 2000 to 2010, at more than 6pc on average, and it is the poorest among the Brics nations, said Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a former Reserve Bank of India governor, referring to the grouping that also includes Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa. It ‘has a much longer distance of travel before it reaches their level of per capita income’, he said. ‘Growth has been good, but it has to be set in perspective.’

(Adapted from “In Charts: How India Has Changed Under Narendra Modi,” by John Reed and Andy Lin, published on January 9, 2024, by the Financial Times)

‘Soft’ sells

Cute, squishable toys were one of America’s hottest gifts. Ahead of a holiday season dampened by a weak forecast, toy makers and retailers tried to stay flush with plush. Toy sales were down 8pc in 2023, compared with 2022, but plush toys enjoyed a soft landing, up 4pc for the year, according to market research firm Circana. Plush-toy sales grew to $1.7bn in October from $846m in October 2020. To stand out from the crowd, plush-toy makers seek to best their rivals in softness and cuddle-ability. “We think about plush the way you think about thread count in sheets,” said David Socha, the CEO of Beverly Hills Teddy Bear. “The average plush might have 300 to 400 threads per inch. But ours is 1,000-plus per inch. It’s buttery, silky, cloud-soft that is cool to the touch.”

(Adapted from “CEOs Are Playing Hardball — To Make Stuffed Animals Softer and Softer,” by Liyan Qi and Shen Lu, published on January 2, 2024, by The Wall Street Journal)

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 15th, 2024