SWABI: A tough contest is expected among three candidates in NA-19, Swabi-1, including former National Assembly speaker Asad Qaiser, Maulana Fazal Ali, central naib emir of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl, and Awami National Party’s Shahnawaz Akhunzada. The total registered voters in the constituency are 551,703, including 256,759 women. In 2013 elections, Mr Qaiser of PTI had won the seat, securing 48,576 votes.

As Mr Qaiser had also won a provincial assembly constituency, he vacated the NA seat and became Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly speaker. The by-election on the seat was won by his brother, Aqibullah Khan.

In 2018 elections, Mr Qaiser won the seat again, receiving 79,438 votes.

As Mr Qaiser had also won a provincial assembly constituency, he opted for NA seat and became the National Assembly speaker, vacating the PA seat. His brother, Aqibullah, was elected MPA in the by-election.

Political observers insist JUI-F’s Fazl Ali has little edge over rivals in Swabi

Now, a total of 16 candidates are in the contest for NA-19. The ticket holders include Khalid Mehmood of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Pakistan-Sami, Khalil Ahmad of Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam Nazaryati, Sayed Nadeem Shah of National Democratic Movement, Shahnawaz Akhunzada of ANP, Umar Gul of Jamaat-i-Islami, Maulana Fazal Ali of JUI-F and Mohammad Bilal Khan Sherpao of Pakistan Peoples Party-Parliamentarians.

The independents include Asad Qaiser, Umat Khan, former provincial minister Sitara Ayaz, Mohammad Razzaq, Meraj Hamayun Khan, former provincial minister Wasim Shah, Waleed Ahmad, Yousaf Ali and Khanzada Arsalan.

Talking to Dawn, JUI-F’s Maulana Ali insisted he was poised to win the NA-19 seat because Mr Qaiser didn’t enjoy support of his own party leaders and workers. “The candidates of other parties are also in disarray and we have strong position in the constituency.”

However, political observers here say it is not an easy task to cover the whole constituency and reach out to every voter. They say it is also a fact that majority of voters are not interested in elections at all.

But, they argue that Maulana Ali enjoys a slight edge over Mr Qaiser and Mr Akhunzada.

NA-19 covers densely-populated Zarobi and Topi areas.

Political observers say if Maulana Ali receives a huge number of votes from his native Zarobi village and its suburbs it will be a big boost for him.

Another advantage for Mr Ali is that the party has another strong candidate – Ghafoor Khan Jadoon, the former provincial food minister, from PK-49, Swabi-1 – as he enjoys strong position in Gadoon belt.

Similarly, if ANP’s Akhunzada gets more votes from his native Topi city and succeeds making inroads into Gadoon belt it will give him lead.

Meanwhile, Mr Qaiser may not be able to secure more number of votes from his native Marghuz village because voters are disillusioned over the fact that Mr Qaiser and his brother, Mr Aqibullah, have failed to carry out any notable development projects in the area despite winning both the NA-19 and PK-49 seats since 2013.

Published in Dawn, January 21st, 2024