THE 2024 elections will be a difficult test in Hyderabad for a born-again Muttahida Qaumi Movement-Pakistan (MQM-P) — an amalgamation of three groups, sans its founder Altaf Hussain’s — as its key rival, the Pakistan Peoples Party, which has also been a chief beneficiary of MQM’s political losses, is heavily capitalising on technical advantages from new delimitations, supportive government machinery and adjustments with religious parties in the Sindh’s second largest city.

Despite passing one year to the merger, the party cadre is still going through the process of integration, which often leads to disagreements among local representatives. It was quite evident from the announcement of party tickets. People like former MNA Salahuddin and joint zonal in charge Naveed Abbasi are still missing from party’s election campaign apparently due to a disagreement over award of tickets. But the party is already said to have fully activated its election related organisational structure, leaving no chance for facing any embarrassment on Feb 8.

The Karachi-based MQM-P leadership had announced tickets on the last date of withdrawal of nomination forms to be followed by last-minute changes of candidates/constituencies.

Hyderabad has three National Assembly seats — NA-218, NA-219 and NA-220 — and four provincial assembly seats —PS-60 to PS-65.

PPP is poised to grab at least one NA seat, but a three-way contest is expected on two NA seats in the district

In the 2018 general elections, the MQM-P had won two of the three NA and three of the four provincial assembly seats in Hyderabad. It had lost a PA seat to the PPP and is now waiting in the wings to recapture it and retain the two NA and three PA seats it had been winning over the years.

The electoral contest is going to be triangular with the MQM-P as major contender and PPP and Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) as its chief rivals; though PML-N and Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) are also in the run.

As it is PPP versus Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) in Sindh’s rural constituencies, the contest in Hyderabad is MQM-P versus the rest.

PPP’s Tariq Shah Jamote will have an easy sail on Hyderabad’s lone rural seat, NA-218. His late father, Ameer Ali Shah Jamote, had been winning the seat since its addition to the city.

The party’s former provincial information minister Sharjeel Inam Memon too will not have to face much difficulty to retain PS-61 (Tandojam). It has been a safe and secure seat for PPP.

Jam Khan Shoro’s contest, however, on PS-60 (Qasimabad) will be interesting against GDA-backed nationalist leader, Ayaz Latif Palijo, who had lost to Shoro in 2018.

This too has been a safe seat for PPP since 2002. Shoro has been the party’s choice for the seat since he joined PPP in 2007. The seat was won by Zahid Bhurgari in 2002 and 2008.

NA-219 (Latifabad) is considered as a safe seat for the MQM-P. It has fielded newcomer Abdul Aleem Khanzada, who is a retired education officer, against Ali Mohammad Sahito, PPP Hyderabad general secretary.

Two PA seats, PS-62 and PS-63, fall within the NA-219 constituency.

PPP’s Jabbar Khan is poised to retain his seat, PS-62, formerly PS-64, which he had won by 3,604 votes in 2018. He is now facing Sabir Kaimkhani, who returned to the NA from this area in 2018.

PPP’s Sanam Talpur is again running for PS-63, formerly PS-65. She had lost to Nadeem Siddiqui in 2018 and is now facing MQM-P’s Kamran Qureshi.

On NA-220, the PPP has fielded Waseem Rajput, a wealthy newcomer, to take on his namesake Wasim Hussain of the MQM-P, who was elected MNA from this constituency in 2013.

PPP’s provincial information secretary Mukhtiar Ahmed alias Ajiz Dhamra is facing MQM-P’s Rashid Khan on PS-64, formerly PS-66 in 2018.

MQM-P’s Nasir Qureshi is up against PPP’s Fareed Qureshi, another newcomer, on PS-65 (PS-67 in 2018). Fareed was polled only 404 votes in 2018 as an independent candidate.

Former Sindh chief minister Syed Murad Shah believes his party will cause upsets on NA-220 and PS-64.

New delimitations suit PPP

Recent delimitations for the NA and PA seats suit PPP to a large extent. Perhaps it was the reason the party maintained a discreet silence on the issue while the MQM-P has been crying hoarse over its adverse implications for the party.

Besides, PPP’s seat adjustments with religious organisations like two factions of Jamiat Ulema-i-Pakistan may help Waseem Rajput beat MQM-P’s candidate.

The PPP had a similar arrangement with JUP-Noorani in 2018 as well, which enabled its head, Abul Khair Mohammad Zubair, to put up some fight against the MQM-P on an NA seat and also helped PPP’s Ajiz Dhamra and Saghir Qureshi to ensure respectable exit on PA seats. Still, they all lost to the MQM-P. Rather, they ranked third as the PTI remained runner up on all seats.

Jiyala mayor and reshuffled HMC

PPP had been yearning for having a jiyala mayor in Hyderabad to be able to create cracks in MQM-P’s stronghold. PPP chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari had expressed his desire at a hari rally in the city two years back to have a jiyala mayor in Hyderabad but it could only be made possible by redesigning Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (HMC). Hence, the Sindh government created 160 union committees in Hyderabad, declaring the entire city as urban area and winding up its historic district council.

The party insiders claimed it was Jam Khan Shoro’s idea to have 160 UCs in order to have a jiyala mayor elected. Subsequently, PPP succeeded to have Kashif Shoro, Jam Khan’s younger brother, elected as mayor.

Prior to it, PPP had once controlled the HMC through the party diehard, Ashiq Mirza, as administrator in 1996 and lately before installation of caretaker set-up PPP had appointed the party’s district president Saghir Qureshi as special assistant to chief minister on “Hyderabad Affairs” to ensure its stakes in the city.

Historically, HMC comprises urban areas inclusive of Qasimabad but in 2015 LG polls Qasimabad was excluded from the corporation by the PPP and made a separate municipal committee.

Till 2020, HMC had 96 UCs of city and Latifabad talukas while Hyderabad (rural) taluka had 20 UCs, which formed the erstwhile district council besides a few town committees.

Religious parties’ influence on city

Before the emergence of the MQM on the political horizon of urban Sindh, Allama Shah Ahmed Noorani’s JUP and Jamaat-i-Islami held sway on Hyderabad’s politics. The parties’ late Wasi Mazhar Nadvi and Ahad Yousuf served as mayors in 70s and early 80s, respectively.

The MQM swept 1987 party-less LG polls in Zia’s era and triumphantly returned to HMC under ‘Haq Parast Group’ title. Since then the religious parties could not reclaim the city’s electoral space.

Since MQM’s creation, PPP had won a PA seat in Hyderabad for the first time when Jabbar Khan clinched PS-62 (Latifabad) by a small margin of 3,604 votes against MQM’s Yunus Gaddi in 2018 polls.

The new delimitations, which had been carried out in Hyderabad in 2022 amid MQM’s complaints, have greatly benefited Jabbar Khan as his constituency has enlarged with addition of new areas that were not part of it earlier.

Jabbar felt somewhat relieved at the fact that delimitations would offset impact of unified MQM’s vote bank as he faces a strong MQM candidate, Sabir Kaimkhani. It is, however, yet to be seen how PTI’s voters behave on the polling day.

Candidates of PTI and even MQM-London are also present in the field as independents. For instance, PTI’s Awais Khan is contesting PS-62. It is, however, yet to be seen whether new faces, delimitations and adjustments with religious parties would help PPP make upsets in the Feb 8 polls.

Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2024

Header image: Paretabad is adorned with flags of different political parties as part of their election campaign, on Tuesday.—Umair Ali