By Nasir Jamal

ON a sunny afternoon towards the end of a mostly hazy January, Jahangir Khan Tareen courts a group of PML-N voters at a corner gathering on Multan’s Masoom Shah Road. The country’s wealthiest sugar baron is promising “massive development in the constituency as well as across the city” if they supported his bid for one of Multan’s two constituencies.

“Those who have known me, know I always fulfil my commitments. This constituency and its residents will be my priority after the election — I will not disappoint you,” he says, as chants of ‘Pakistan ko Nawaz Do’ broke out.

“I will stand by Nawaz Sharif,” he hastily adds, perhaps remembering who his audience are.

Tareen has earned quite a reputation as a wheeler-dealer par excellence. In 2018, he played a key role in the formation of the PTI’s governments in Lahore and Islamabad, first by breaking away several so-called ‘electables’ from the N-League’s ranks ahead of the polls, and then herding scores of independent lawmakers from South Punjab into his now former party.

Read more: Jahangir Tareen — looking to deliver on the promise of ‘Naya Pakistan’?

This election, he is being supported by the PML-N on one of the two NA constituencies in Multan. It is quid pro quo for his pivotal role in removing ‘estranged friend’ Imran Khan from power, and for carving the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) out from the PTI.

The southern districts of Punjab once again appear ready to do what they have done every election cycle: move in the direction the political wind is blowing

Mr Tareen is, in fact, running for two National Assembly seats — the other one is from a Lodhran constituency. However, one was the maximum price Mr Sharif was willing to pay, and that too only in Multan, where Mr Sharif was not able to find a candidate strong enough to take on the PTI-backed independent, Amir Dogar. Mr Dogar’s family has lost the seat only once in multiple past contests. In Lodhran, where Mr Tareen won in 2013, he must defeat the PML-N’s Siddique Baloch, who, like Dogar, may prove an equally difficult foe.

Whether he wins or loses one or both of these electoral races, many, like Seraiki activist Prof Akram Mirani, believe that Tareen will remain an important cog in the post-election dispensation.

“With a jet at his disposal and a lot of disposable cash in his pocket, his real job — purchasing independent winners from the region to help the Sharifs form their government — will actually begin post-February 8,” Mr Mirani says.

Meanwhile, his party’s presence is being seen as an aberration in what mostly are three-way races between the PML-N, PTI-backed independents and the PPP across southern Punjab.

The fickle south

The region once again appe­ars ready to do what it has done every election cycle: move in the direction the political wind is blowing. Previous election results from 11 southern districts of the Multan, DG Khan and Bahawalpur divisions clearly show the South hasn’t ever stood by the same party beyond one election cycle.

In the 1990s, the region switched between Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto. The PML-Q snatched it from the Sharifs in 2002, and the PPP won a majority in 2008. The South then overwhelmingly shifted its loyalties to the N-League in 2013, before finally leaning towards the PTI in 2018.

The current election cycle is no different. Ever since a crackdown was launched against PTI and its leadership in the wake of the May 9 events, the party has lost several of the ‘electables’ that won it the previous election to the PML-N. At the same time, some legacy politicians and electables from the region, like Sardar Nasrullah Dreshik, Meena and Mohsin Leghari, and Makhdoom Khusro Bakhtiar, have distanced themselves from the party, even if they haven’t joined any other either. Nor are they in the electoral race.

However, this does not mean the PTI has been completely decimated in South Punjab. Far from it: it has successfully retained many of its winning candidates. On top of that, Imran’s unfading popularity across the South has created a strong PTI vote bank in the region.

A wave of sympathy

Makhdoom Javed Hashmi soaks in the sun at the Makhdoom Rasheed residence, some 35 kilometres from Multan, surrounded by local politicians. His house was raided a few days earlier by police. They had been told to prevent a public meeting organised by his nephew, Faraz Hashmi, who is being backed by the PTI for a Punjab Assembly seat from the area.

Meher Bano Qureshi, Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s daughter, was also expected to make speech at the event, which had been organised within the four walls of Hashmi’s sprawling residence. Meher Bano is in the race for the National Assembly seat from the same constituency.

Read more: 8 electoral battles to watch out for on NA seats in Feb 8 elections

Mr Hashmi, an old hand in Pakistan’s politics, was jailed by Gen Pervez Musharraf for refusing to ditch the PML-N. He led the Sharifs’ party after the family decided to go into exile in Saudi Arabia in 2000 after Nawaz’s conviction in the plane hijacking case.

Mr Hashmi later joined Imran Khan sometime before the 2013 elections, but left the PTI when he found Mr Khan to be toeing the establishment’s line. He accused the PTI of weakening the civilian government and democracy with the PTI’s 2014 dharna in Islamabad, later re-joined the Sharifs. However, the PML-N recently refused him a ticket to accommodate Mr Tareen. He has withdrawn from the fight since.

Mr Hashmi insists it will be quite difficult, if not impossible, to prevent an overwhelming victory for the PTI in the South, and insists that the party can repeat its performance from 2018, when it bagged 24 National Assembly seats out of the 46 it contested.

Read more: Javed Hashmi, the perennial rebel

“This is despite the fact that the party is in the fray without an election symbol, with its ‘independent’ candidates being aggressively hounded, its candidates getting arrested on frivolous charges, and their can­vassing impeded by the district administration and police.”

Real or perceived — the persecution being faced by Imran Khan and his party is causing considerable disquiet among the young and working-class voters.

“If this rage makes them vote in strong numbers on the polling day — and they are not thwarted in this by the administration — the PML-N will find it really tough to win a respectable number of seats in the South,” Hashmi believes. The PML-N had bagged 11 NA seats from the region in the previous polls, down from 27 in 2013.

“The PTI still remains the most popular party in the South despite crackdowns and persecution. If we have a free and fair election today, it will sweep the entire southern region of Punjab,” he contends.

“The police are not letting PTI-backed candidates canvass anywhere in the region, but I still believe that the establishment will not be able to prevent a big majority of the PTI-backed candidates from winning the polls,” he concludes.

If that happens, it wouldn’t be short of a miracle.

The PPP factor

The PPP is yet another strong contender in the South, where it has strong pockets of voters based in different districts like Rahim Yar Khan, Multan, Muzaffargarh, Layyah, DG Khan. The last time the party gained a strong foothold in region was in 2008, when it won 21 seats, and conceded nine to the PML-N and 11 to the PML-Q. In 2013, both the PPP and PTI bagged two constituencies each, but the PPP’s share rose to five in the last elections. Many insist that the PPP can win at least 10-12 seats or more this time.

“It appears that the PPP is able to campaign freely this time around,” Prof Mirani says. “I’ll be surprised if the PPP fails to transform its expectations into seats. I cannot say how many constituencies it will manage to win though,” says the professor.

Not an easy fight

Senior Multan-based journalist Mazhar Javed believes that on paper, the N-League appears to have dominated the electoral scene; however, it will not be smooth sailing for Nawaz and his party.

“The PML-N has a free hand in the southern districts, as it does in Central Punjab. Unlike its rival PTI, it can freely hold rallies and public gatherings whenever and wherever it likes. None of its candidates have faced any serious problems in the filing of their nomination papers and their scrutiny.

“They also have faced no hurdles in door-to-door canvassing. These facilities are certainly not available to the PTI. Even the PPP, the second most important rival of the PML-N in South Punjab, has sometimes complained of the electoral field being ‘too level’ in favour of the PML-N. Nevertheless, it is going to face stiff competition from PTI-backed and other independent candidates,” Mr Javed argues.

Read more: Swinging between the victor and the vanquished

Prof Mirani does not agree that the PML-N is “dominating” the electoral scene.

“The party may be the only option the army has for now, and it may win the majority of the races, but the reality is that it is not popular. It has the required infrastructure, but it cannot sweep the region or even come close to its 2013 performance,” Mirani insists.

Human rights lawyer from Bahawalpur Faisal Mahmood Khan Tangwani says the PML-N is seen by the voters as a ruling party in the making.

“There is a perception among voters that the powers that be have decided to bring the party to power through the Thursday polls. This has led to a general apprehension among non-PMLN voters that, no matter how they vote, Nawaz Sharif will still be made prime minister. This could lead to many of them either abstaining from voting or casting their votes in favour of the PML-N so that they, too, can get the spoils from having voted for the ruling party.”

“At the same time, the PML-N also has a formidable list of candidates and a strong vote bank based on its development work in the region,” he states. “Its 16 months in power between April 2022 and August 2023 allowed it to throw some goodies at this electorate and release development funds to its candidates for publicly visible projects, such as roads and bridges.”

Yet, he agrees that the PML-N’s path to victory in South Punjab will not be without difficulty. “The perception of being seen as a pro-establishment party may hurt those voters who it mobilised on anti-establishment slogans in the 2018 elections and afterwards. Its dismal economic performance during its 16-month government has also alienated many.”

Read more: Nawaz, Maryam have a fair chance in Lahore’s NA-130, NA-119

Moreover, the PML-N has also not really helped its cause by awarding election tickets to turncoats from the PTI. This has alienated voters and triggered defections. Besides, the PML-N is facing an electoral field where, unlike past races, the competition is multi-faceted.

“In the past, if there was a third contender, it was always a minor presence. Now, all major and minor players are in the field, and given the persecution being faced by the PTI, it has the capacity to mobilise anti-N-league voters in South Punjab, which, quoting former president Zardari, far surpass the pro-N voters,” Mr Javed remarks. He also notes that the PML-N has not been able to attract electables in a large enough number despite pressure from the powers that be.

As they say, the battle for the federation and Punjab may be fought in its central districts, but the war is won or lost in South Punjab. For Nawaz Sharif, the bumpy road to Islamabad can become even bumpier if his party doesn’t do well enough in the south. Whichever way one looks at it, the region will remain crucial to PML-N’s bid for power.

Published in Dawn, February 7th, 2024