AS the dust settles and the politicians assume office, it is time to take a dispassionate look at the emerging dispensation, with a particular focus on the four principal players: the PTI, PPP, PML-N, and the establishment. They will have a defining role to play — individually, collusively, or collectively — in the coming months; either to initiate the much-needed stability and economic revival, or push the country further into the abyss of chaos and disorder.

PTI: At the outset, let it be said that even if the elections were rigged, the ‘plan’ has not fully produced the desired results. Perhaps, the game of asserting authority has reached its tragic limits. First, in the last set-up, the PML-N was ousted from the federal and provincial governments, and the PPP reduced to the rural areas of Sindh. But this time, an embattled PTI has retained a majority government in KP.

Second, the PTI’s sizeable presence on the opposition benches in Punjab and the federal legislatures will enhance its bargaining power vis-à-vis the establishment, particularly in reference to the tough policy decisions that are to be taken by the PML-N coalition government in the face of a substantial public backlash.

Third, the resurgence of an underdog PTI facing down powerful opponents has also helped the party and its followers cross the psychological barriers of fear and vulnerability.

A formidable PTI-led opposition could become a nightmare for the government.

Finally, the PTI is better placed to rope in religious and nationalist parties, which nurse their own grouse against the establishment and the PML-N-PPP duo for ‘stealing’ their seats. Thus, a formidable PTI-led opposition in and out of parliament could become a living nightmare for the government; more so, if an estranged Maulana Fazlur Rahman of the JUI-F were to join it with his numerous street-fighting cadres.

PPP: These elections have been a godsend for the PPP. It has emerged as a new balancing force, relegating the once redoubtable PML-N to a lesser position. It has formed a solid majority government in Sindh, where it already enjoys an absolute hold over local governments, including in Karachi, whose mayor is from its own ranks. The PML-N-led minority federal government will also subsist at its pleasure. It has already occupied the presidency, and is tipped to have the office of chairman Senate, besides possessing the ‘right’ to appoint governors in two key provinces, Punjab and KP, by virtue of an ‘agreement’ with the PML-N.

More surprisingly, it has formed a coalition government in Balochistan, where its presence is thin. No wonder pundits view President Asif Ali Zardari as the emerging kingmaker. But the PPP’s meteoric rise also raises questions: how did it achieve such success? Was it due to its ‘performance’ in Sindh and elsewhere? Or a reward for its 15-year-long, testy but trusted ‘engagement’ with the powers that be? Or was it the triumph of the skills of its co-chairman (Zardari) to game the system? A separate piece would be needed to attempt the answers.

PML-N: The PML-N is facing its moment of truth. It is a victim of its own doings and responsible for the Phoenix-like rise of its arch-rival PTI. The edifice of its duality, carefully nurtured over the years by Nawaz Sharif’s anti-establishment narrative and the can-do image of Shehbaz Sharif, now lies in tatters, thanks to its alliance with its old nemesis — ie, the establishment — and the poor performance of the PML-N-led PDM government. On top of that, it is saddled with steering the country out of multiple crises on the back of a rickety, hotchpotch government. The ensuing financial constraints, a tough opposition, and the IMF’s implacable conditionalities will further erode its political standing, including among its traditional allies — the industrial and trading classes, which dominate the economic heart of central Punjab.

However, the real test of its stewardship would be getting around the IMF for a long-term deal in the tumultuous times that lie ahead. The PTI-led opposition is already baying for its blood. Thus, in the emerging tough scenario, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will have little option but to periodically seek the establishment’s indulgence in carrying out the needed legislative and economic agendas (just as Imran Khan did during his incumbency). But would (or could) the powers that be get him the desired results in such times? The answer requires looking into the establishment’s own predicament.

Establishment: The strong-arm methods and alleged ‘institutional’ help in forging an anti-PTI alliance and ‘managing’ electoral results haven’t really borne fruit for certain quarters in cutting the PTI down to size, ensuring political stability and economic revival, and dominating a fractured polity. Instead, the PTI seems to have emerged rather more robustly, electorally and morally. In fact, a hung parliament has enhanced its leverage to play tough and get a better deal from those it sees as holding the reins. So far, Imran Khan has not budged, despite the increasing number of cases against him.

The PTI’s letter to the IMF demanding an electoral ‘audit’ has also set the tone, reflecting a no-holds-barred approach. It is, therefore, likely that the party may not only feed into the instability, but try to weaponise it too in its attempt to get the powers that be to give ground or let the system implode. A modus vivendi between the establishment and the PTI has been suggested by some in order to ensure stability, salvage the economy, and possibly realise the former’s inclination for constitutional changes to reverse some key financial and political benefits that accrued to the provinces after the 18th Amendment.

Way out: The country is in a deep ditch again. It can no more be lifted via the old ‘managerial ways’ by coercion, allegedly compromised sections of the judiciary, or a legion of turncoats. Political engineering has its limits, and can only improvise ways to prolong its dysfunctionalities, and that too at a heavy cost — political, institutional, economic and human.

But as things stand, working a visibly rigged system is going to prove difficult, if not destructive for the institutions. It is, therefore, imperative to reset the entire system, consensually and democratically. Or else the ditch will only deepen.

The writer is a lawyer and an academic.

shahabusto@hotmail.com

Published in Dawn, March 16th, 2024