Constant decline
THE UNDP’s Human Development Report for 2023-24 ranks Pakistan 164th out of 193 countries. Last year, Pakistan stood at 161. Its decline on the Human Development Index (HDI) did not create much of a stir in the country. Perhaps few were surprised, considering the protracted political instability, the colossal losses resulting from the 2022 floods, poor governance and staggering inflation.
Among the eight Saarc countries, only Pakistan and Afghanistan fall in the ‘low human development’ category. India (134), Bangladesh (129), Nepal (146), Bhutan (125) and the Maldives (87) come under the ‘medium development’ category, whereas Sri Lanka, while slipping to 78 from 73, because of its nightmarish economic meltdown, remains in the ‘high development’ category. Some of the other countries, too, have slipped, including India, Nepal and Afghanistan, whereas Bangladesh has maintained its position and Bhutan and the Maldives have been ranked higher than previously.
While most of the Saarc countries do not have an enviable presence on the human development map, Pakistan consistently remains below them with the exception of war-torn Afghanistan. It trailed Nigeria and Rwanda, while it has performed only slightly better than Sudan, Eritrea and Ghana, all chronically low performers. A closer look shows that Pakistan particularly went down in expected years of schooling for both females (from 8.1 to 7.3 years) and males (from 9.2 to 8.4 years).
The recent report also provides a look at the performance trajectory from 2015 to 2022. Pakistan and Afghanistan are the only two countries in the Saarc region whose human development status plunged during these seven years. Afghanistan dropped by eight levels, while Pakistan descended three rungs. This should be a real cause of concern for our policymakers, ie, it is not just a transitory decline in a single year but a continuous downslide. On this scale, all other Saarc countries have performed progressively. Maldives (+13), Bhutan (+10), and Bangladesh (+12) have demonstrated impressive gains in human development. Sri Lanka, India and Nepal ascended by six, four and three steps respectively.
We spend more on border security than internal human security.
According to the gloomy picture etched by the World Bank’s Pakistan Human Capital Review, released last year, the country’s “human capital outcomes are more comparable to those in Sub-Saharan Africa, which has an average HCI [human capital index] value of 0.40”. The report also exposed the glaring provincial disparity. The worst performing province, Balochistan (0.32), “is at the global bottom, at the same level as Niger. Sindh, with an HCI value of 0.36, is comparable to Nigeria and Sierra Leone (0.36). Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with an HCI value of 0.39, is comparable to Burundi and Tanzania. The HCI value of the best-performing province in Pakistan — Punjab (0.42) — is comparable to Senegal (0.42) and just below South Africa (0.43). Northern Punjab has the highest HCI value (about 0.50). Rural Sindh and Balochistan are home to districts with Pakistan’s lowest HCI values (about 0.25).”
What the HDI and HCI reports have revealed is corroborated by the fact that Pakistan’s public investment in education is only 2.5pc of GDP and 0.9pc in health, both much lower than the global average. Pakistan spends about 0.6pc of GDP on social safety nets, compared with the global average of 1.5pc. Pakistan’s annual investment in education, health and social protection has increased in absolute terms but is not commensurate with its population growth.
A country that spends 70pc of its revenue on debt-servicing is hardly able to concentrate on human development. However, a critical policy examination unveils that misplaced priorities are the real cause behind this ignominious situation. Entangled in unending border conflicts, the country spends a lot more on border security than its internal human security. Whereas border security has its own imperatives, constant compromise on human security has even graver ramifications.
Similarly, there has been huge international borrowing to pay off loans and the accruing interest, while exports, foreign investment and remittances are stagnant. This flagrant imbalance between resource inflow and outflow will keep the country in an economic quagmire.
Unless economic indicators improve, human development indicators will remain dismal. Modern economies thrive on performing human capital, embracing modern technologies and regional cooperation.
Unfortunately, Pakistan has shown sluggish performance on all fronts. Border conflicts are incessant, internet communication is asphyxiated and human capital is frail due to poor investment. In brief, the tunnel is dark and endless.
The writer is a civil society professional.
Published in Dawn, April 6th, 2024