Pakistan’s agriculture sector is witnessing a notable change in cropping patterns, driven by a complex interplay of various factors, including climate change and evolving market dynamics. However, it is concerning that the change appears to be out of sync with government planning and future development objectives set by our policymakers.

The changing cropping patterns raise a pertinent policy issue: how can Pakistan’s overall agricultural productivity be increased through the right selection of crops? What and how much should be grown, and why?

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, agricultural statistics spanning 2012 to 2022 reveal that the wheat crop area has seen a moderate increase from 8.7 million to 8.9m hectares — a rise of 3.8 per cent. Notably, over the said ten-year period, rice, maize (corn), and sugarcane crop areas have surged by 37pc, 52pc, and 19pc respectively.

However, this increase occurred primarily at the expense of cotton, which plummeted from 2.8m to 1.9m hectares during the same period, reflecting a staggering 32pc decrease.

Policies to encourage specific crops while disregarding critical factors are ineffective as farmers shift towards their preferred options

Not only has the cultivation of much-cherished cotton experienced a decline, but the combined areas of major edible oil seeds (sunflower, canola, rapeseed, and mustard), as well as pulses (gram, mung, mash, and lentil), have also experienced a shrinking trend, with negative growths of 31pc and 1.5pc respectively over 2012-2022 period. Regrettably, the provisional figure of the area of pulses planted in 2022-2023, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey, indicates a further decline of 9.9pc within a mere year.

The statistics unmistakably highlight the significant trend of crop switching. However, these trends stand in stark contrast to the government’s policies and initiatives to expand domestic production of cotton, edible oil seeds, and pulses to alleviate the burden of increasing imports.

In their endeavours to promote these crops, which are essential for the country’s economic development and food security, policymakers and sector experts have overlooked the intricate interplay of various dynamic factors at the grassroots level.

In Pakistan, where crop zoning is neither practised nor mandatory, the key factors influencing crop choice include agroclimatic conditions, availability of irrigation water, mechanisation intensity, labour requirements, ease of farming operations, availability and cost of crop inputs, production and price risks, and marketability of produce.

However, as we transition from subsistence farming to commercial agriculture, the primary motivator for farmers remains the financial returns derived from specific crops.

Undoubtedly, any government policy or initiative aimed at promoting a specific crop will fail if it disregards these critical factors. However, the government may achieve its objectives by offering significant subsidies or other incentives to compensate for any weak or missing links in the overall equation. Nonetheless, the long-term sustainability of such interventions, which may lead to market distortion, remains a question mark.

To support this argument, we can reference the success stories of maize and sesame cultivation in Pakistan. Over recent years, both crops have experienced significant growth in crop area and production — maize production expanded by 55pc, while sesame production soared by an impressive 275pc from 2017 to 2022.

Likewise, their exports have witnessed remarkable growth. From July to December in the current fiscal year alone, Pakistan exported maize and sesame seeds worth $262m and $364m, indicating an impressive growth of 208pc and 278pc, respectively. Pakistan has now emerged as the fifth-largest exporter of sesame seeds globally and the second-largest supplier of China after Niger.

Interestingly, this growth has largely occurred without any notable government support. In truth, the success of maize and sesame can be attributed to favourable climate conditions, improved seed varieties and advantageous market dynamics, such as the appreciation of the dollar against the rupee (from 104 to 275 over a seven-year period), resulting in better market prices, and in turn, greater profits for farmers.

Given that no mechanism exists to regulate crop acreage in the country, farmers will continue growing their preferred crops unless their profitability is significantly undermined by a decline in yield or crop prices or until a new crop with better prospects emerges as a viable alternative.

Such a shift is exemplified by the case of sugarcane, which has replaced a substantial acreage of cotton in South Punjab over the last two decades. Similarly, farmers are replacing the mung bean area — adversely affected by extreme weather conditions — with sesame, which offers higher profit and lower production costs.

In addition, farmers today are more resourceful (though not all) and better informed than ever before. They promptly respond to market changes or new limiting factors in the very next crop season without requiring much time for adoption.

For instance, Punjab’s farmers are currently adjusting to the decline in maize prices observed in 2023 by reducing the area planted with maize in 2024, as evidenced by the recent sales figures of maize hybrid seed.

Put simply, while the government’s historical emphasis on promoting cotton and edible oil seeds — strictly in line with the principle of comparative advantage, the domestic resource cost concept, and the theory of factor endowments — made sense in the past, it may no longer hold the same relevance in today’s agricultural landscape, characterised by climate variability, higher production and price risks, technological advancements, variety of substitute crops, and evolving market dynamics.

If we set aside environmental considerations (depletion of water resources), the current agricultural landscape appears to favour crops such as maize, rice, sugarcane, wheat, potato and sesame over cotton, pulses, and major edible oil seeds.

However, in the future, the emergence of high-yielding, climate- and insect-resistant varieties of cotton or other crops, along with favourable produce prices, could fundamentally alter the entire balance in their favour because these crops are substitutes for each other.

In conclusion, it is high time for our policymakers to acknowledge the evolving agricultural landscape and prioritise crops that can increase Pakistan’s overall agricultural productivity and the welfare of farmers. The sooner policymakers recognise this reality, the better prepared they will be to steer Pakistan’s agricultural development towards effective and sustainable outcomes.

Khalid Wattoo is a farmer and a development professional and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former Associate Professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, April 8th, 2024