After an unprecedented season of success by Red Bull in 2023, Ferrari is sniffing victory this year. After the annual break in Formula 1, things look mighty close between the two. But can the Scuderia capitalise and challenge Verstappen? The Tifosi definitely hope so.

Mercedes also seeks redemption after a dismal start in 2024, and surprise contenders such as McLaren add spice to the mix. With a record-breaking calendar and a high-stakes driver market waiting in the wings, the 2024 season promises an unforgettable battle for Formula 1 glory.

FLASHBACK 2023

The 2023 Formula 1 season was yet another year of dominance for Red Bull, with Max Verstappen clinching a record-breaking number of victories and the team securing both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ championships. While driver line-ups remain largely unchanged, regulation tweaks and a record-setting 24-race calendar promise a season brimming with potential upsets and high-octane drama.

The last season saw Red Bull establish themselves as the clear frontrunners. Verstappen was unstoppable, taking home an impressive 19 wins out of 22 races. The team’s strategic brilliance and the aerodynamic prowess of the RB19 car proved to be a formidable combination.

As the 2024 Formula 1 season kicks off, it is time to look in the rear view mirror as well as get into top gear

While Ferrari and Mercedes mounted a slight challenge early on, their development stagnated midway through the season. Although Mercedes continued to struggle with their W14 car, it managed to outrun Ferrari for the runner-up spot on the final race day, by just three points.

McLaren and Alex Albon were the standout surprises of the 2023 season. After a string of disappointing years, McLaren managed to climb back into contention for podium finishes, thanks in part to the exciting driver duo of Lando Norris and the impressive rookie, Oscar Piastri.

After finding his groove in Formula 1, Albon continued driving for Williams in 2023, which turned out to be a banner year for him. While his teammate, the rookie driver Logan Sargeant, scored just one point, Albon scored an incredible 27 for the British squad, which allowed Williams to secure the seventh spot in the Constructors’ Championship.

KEY REGULATION CHANGES FOR 2024

Looking ahead to the 2024 season, Red Bull is expected to remain at the forefront. Their 2023 performance and the team’s consistency give them a huge leg up. However, with the new season kicking off, Ferrari and Mercedes are expected to bounce back, or at least put up a worthy fight.

The 2024 F1 regulations address some concerns raised in previous seasons. The regulations regarding the car’s underbody have been revised to promote fairer competition and address potential weaknesses. Notably, metal components and inserts in key areas like the floor and its various wings are now banned.

This aims to prevent teams from exploiting loopholes and gaining an unfair aerodynamic advantage. To further guarantee the floor retains its intended rigidity throughout races, more stringent deflection tests have been instituted. In response to the extreme heat experienced in races like Qatar, a new Driver Cooling Scoop has been introduced. This scoop, located on the front chassis, channels air towards the driver to improve comfort and performance in hot conditions.

Additionally, the ‘Alternative Tyre Allocation’ format, where different tire compounds were used in each qualifying session, has been eliminated. Responding to driver concerns about spray and visibility in wet races, tyre manufacturers Pirelli will be allocated an additional four test days, dedicated solely to developing new wet weather tyres. The total number of test days has also been increased to allow teams more time for general development throughout the season.

The number of allowable power unit elements per driver has reverted to four for the 2024 season. This change aims to control costs and limit the performance disparity between teams with different engine suppliers. Additionally, stricter Parc Fermé rules and a revised curfew system aim to ensure fairer competition, by limiting opportunities for teams to work on their cars outside of designated periods.

The Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA) has also tightened its grip on potential rule violations. This includes increased fines — up to €1 million — a shorter window for lodging complaints, and a refundable “deposit” system, designed to deter frivolous protests. These changes aim to create a more level playing field and ensure adherence to the regulations throughout the season.

EARLY SURPRISES

Mercedes has endured a shockingly difficult start to the 2024 season. The once-dominant team, seemed far off from a podium finish in the early races this year, and even suffered a double “Did Not Finish” (DNF) in Australia. Despite early struggles, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell still possess the skills to salvage the season, but Mercedes needs to make drastic improvements to be competitive at the front of the pack.

In contrast, McLaren has enjoyed a solid start, with Lando Norris consistently finishing in the points and securing an impressive podium in Australia. With the promising addition of Oscar Piastri, McLaren aims to consistently challenge for better grid positions as they continue developing their car under the new ownership of Bahrain’s sovereign wealth fund, Mumtalakat.

Alpine, the French manufacturer with an all-French driver line-up, has been one of the season’s biggest disappointments thus far. Neither Esteban Ocon nor Pierre Gasly have earned points in the first three races, highlighting the need for significant improvements, if they aim to be contenders.

Aston Martin continues to be an intriguing team. While their results are mixed, the partnership between Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll should bring valuable experience and speed to the table. As the season unfolds, Aston Martin’s potential may become clearer.

Kick Sauber has had a very disappointing start to the season, lacking performance and sitting on zero points. Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Guanyu are battling hard, but the team needs a significant boost to become competitive in the midfield. Other teams, like Haas and Williams, may currently be battling at the back of the field, but both have the potential for surprises as the season develops. Haas boasts the experienced pair of Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hülkenberg, ready to capitalise on opportunities if the car shows improvement.

DRIVER MARKET HOTTING UP

The 2024 season is touted as the year of calm before the storm in the driver market. Looming large is Lewis Hamilton’s confirmed blockbuster switch to Ferrari for the 2025 season. After over a decade with Mercedes, this move will undoubtedly shake up the status quo and leave a void at the Silver Arrows that Mercedes will be desperate to fill.

With Carlos Sainz set to depart Ferrari, he becomes an incredibly sought-after driver for 2025. His consistent performances and race-winning potential make him a prime target for teams looking to improve their fortunes.

One driver whose future remains uncertain is Daniel Ricciardo. His return to Formula 1 with the renamed Visa Cash App RB Team (formerly AlphaTauri) was a surprising move. Unfortunately, Ricciardo’s struggles have continued. Despite the pressure to perform alongside his snooty teammate Yuki Tsunoda, Ricciardo has yet to score any points in the first three races. This lacklustre performance raises questions about his ability to recapture his past form, leaving his future in Formula 1 beyond 2024 uncertain.

A SEASON OF UNPREDICTABILITY

No matter how tempting it is to draw firm conclusions after just three races, a Formula 1 season, ironically, is a marathon, not a sprint. While Red Bull will start as the hunted, their rivals Ferrari have tasted blood early on in the season.

Verstappen’s dominance might not be as assured this year, and we could witness a titanic three-way fight for the driver’s championship between him, Leclerc and Sainz. The midfield battle is also all set to heat up, with McLaren and Aston Martin potentially exchanging blows throughout the year.

The 2024 Formula 1 season has the potential to be one of the most unpredictable and exciting in recent years. The top teams are hungry for victories and we’re poised for an electrifying contest of skill, strategy, and technical adaptation.

The writer is a marketing and communications professional. X: @adaffan

Published in Dawn, EOS, April 14th, 2024