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The fissures within
THERE was nothing surprising about the by-election results. The ruling PML-N won the majority of the National Assembly and provincial assemblies’ seats up for grabs in Punjab amid allegations of rigging.
It may not be an exact repeat of the Feb 8 general elections but the by-polls were not fair either. Being in power, the party has full control of the administration in the province, which gives it a distinct advantage. While the victory on two NA and 10 PA seats may have strengthened the PML-N’s position at the centre and in the province, it is not a measure of rising popular support for the party as its leadership claims. There is increasing public cynicism over the fairness of the electoral process. The question of legitimacy continues to hover over the current dispensation.
However, it is the growing internal fissures that appear to be more worrisome for the ruling party. Some senior PML-N stalwarts are now publicly airing their discontent over the hybrid rule of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. There is even insinuation that the real power lies somewhere else and that the elder Sharif, the actual heir to the throne, has been deviously sidelined. The divide is becoming more pronounced.
It may not present an immediate threat to the Shehbaz government but there is a real danger of it all turning more vitriolic, with the administration struggling to find its moorings. The discontent within PML-N ranks is not just a manifestation of the power struggle within the Sharif family; it is also symptomatic of the inherent contradiction within hybrid rule, with the power balance tilted more towards forces outside parliament.
While commenting on the ascendancy of Mohsin Naqvi to one of the most powerful cabinet positions, without any affiliation to the ruling alliance, Rana Sanaullah, in his own piquant style, said it all. The inference to the interior minister’s close association with the security establishment is apparent. Sanaullah, the former interior minister, who is one of the PML-N’s most senior leaders, quipped in a TV interview that Naqvi could also become prime minister if he wished.
The only way out is reconciliation among the political forces.
This view is shared by many other PML-N stalwarts. There is a widespread perception that the interior minister does not work under but with the prime minister and that he is only answerable to the establishment. His election to the Senate with the support of the PML-N and all other allied parties gives credence to the assumptions regarding his powerful patrons. The meteoric rise of a media baron to such a high political position is quite amazing.
Curiously, the former caretaker chief minister of Punjab now wears many hats. Beside holding one of the most powerful cabinet positions as interior minister, he also heads the Pakistan Cricket Board. There were several aspirants for the post of PCB chief. Rana Sanaullah’s remarks certainly make a lot of sense.
However, such an accomplishment is not rare, with the deepening involvement of the establishment in political matters. The election of Faisal Vawda to the Senate is yet another curious example of the rising power of the establishment. A PTI deserter, who was a federal minister in Imran Khan’s government and whose strong ties with the establishment are well known, he was supported by all allied parties in the Senate election. In the words of Rana Sanaullah, ‘they all belong to the same tribe’.
While Shehbaz Sharif may not have a problem playing second fiddle to the establishment, the resentment within the PML-N is becoming increasingly palpable. It is not just Sanaullah but other party leaders, too, who have spoken out. Their tenor may not be confrontationist, but their concerns about diminishing civilian space are growing.
Many of these PML-N leaders lost in the Feb 8 elections, which has added to their frustration. Most are believed to be part of the Nawaz Sharif camp and want the former prime minister to take charge. Curiously, the three-time former prime minister has confined himself to Punjab, where he is helping his daughter administer the province. But he is not completely out of the decision-making process. He still calls the shots on important party and government matters.
Some party leaders see his decision to step back as part of the strategy to keep himself out of the controversies surrounding the government and bide his time. But it may not be that easy for the veteran politician. His political position has weakened hugely after he lost one seat, and won in a highly controversial contest on another in Lahore, in the Feb 8 poll. Who would know better than him that it was a Pyrrhic victory for his party?
In fact, the return to power of the PML-N and the survival of an extremely fragile coalition government are due to the establishment’s support. In this situation, it is not surprising that the balance of power in the hybrid arrangement is with the military leadership. The question of legitimacy has further weakened parliament’s power, providing greater space to non-elected elements.
Despite the establishment’s support, the government is standing on extremely shaky ground, with continuing pressure from a strong opposition. In such a situation, the Shehbaz government doesn’t have any choice but to work with the establishment’s handpicked interior minister.
In fact, what could be described as a hybrid-plus arrangement has its own set of problems that will continue to affect the smooth functioning of the system. The occasional outburst of some PML-N leaders over the increasing involvement of the establishment in politics is not likely to change the existing power matrix.
The only way out is reconciliation among the political forces. The PML-N victory in the questionable by-elections may not help the ruling party assert civilian authority. It is likely to only exacerbate the politics of confrontation.
The multiple challenges faced by the country cannot be dealt with by a distorted political order. This is history’s lesson, which, unfortunately, our political leaders have failed to learn.
The writer is an author and journalist.
X: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, April 24th, 2024
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