Ending conflicts
BUSINESS gurus, often deemed unwise, gave very wise advice to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Karachi: end conflicts with the PTI and India. These tiffs are the biggest internal and external drains on national energy, curbing our progress. The one with the PTI has polarised society and major institutions and impeded their work. The one with India has contributed to our isolation and wasted scarce resources on defence. There are also the Baloch and Taliban conflicts. Arguably, the shadow of the establishment hovers over all. Three of the issues need a peaceful end; the Taliban a forceful one.
But can they be ended? The PTI, PML-N, PPP and the powers that be must first gather in a room for truth and reconciliation and admit their roles in fanning political instability that causes all our social, economic, security and external issues. The elephant in the room must fulfil its earlier promises to eschew politics.
The PTI, PML-N and PPP must then sign charters of democracy and governance. In the charter of democracy, they must accept that the 2018 and 2024 polls were rigged; agree never to seek the establishment’s aid again; see each other as rivals and not enemies; accept each other’s mandate; eschew political victimisation via fake cases against rivals; and make institutions independent.
They must also agree on a time frame for early polls, and come to an agreement on legal changes before they are held to make them credible and agree on a power-sharing formula under which all three get a piece of the pie to compensate for both the 2018 and 2024 alleged rigging. An example of this could be an agreement for two of them to form a federal coalition after the polls to ensure political stability, with the third one leading or being in the Punjab set-up, depending on their numbers.
A charter of governance must commit to ending misrule.
The charter of governance must commit to ending misrule, especially of the economic variety. All three parties must publicly accept their own input in the economic mess and admit that the cited six per cent growth under the PML-N and PTI was not accurate. Most critically, they must accept that their top leaders are not the best ones to rule at the moment, given how bad our economic status is. They must agree to appoint competent cabinets with experts in key posts for the next five to 10 years, while the top leaders run their parties, like the Gandhi family has since Rajiv Gandhi’s death.
While this charter will cover all areas, I focus on the three other conflicts. On the Taliban, all three, especially the PTI, must agree that talks are futile, use China’s influence to wean Kabul away from the TTP, and deploy force if the latter still don’t end terrorism. On Balochistan, they should agree to give nationalists their due share, end disappearances, ensure development and hold talks with the insurgents to put down their arms. On India, the three must agree on trade and peace, recognising that it holds the aces. Our only small leverage is that the world still doesn’t accept India’s claims on occupied Kashmir without a pact with Pakistan and the Kashmiris.
Will the four forces accept this plan broadly? The PTI, lacking other viable paths, may do so as the dubious case against it might then end and it may lead the centre and/ or Punjab set-up. But it too must eschew populism; end its polarising politics of calling the PPP and PML-N chors, while filling its own ranks with some dubious elements; and agree to work with the parties. Perhaps one can conjecture that in such a scenario, the PPP may agree as it won’t lose Sindh and may be in coalition in the centre too. But the PML-N may be unwilling to lose power. However, if the others agree, it may not have an option. A piece of the pie may mollify it further.
Finally, what will it take to reduce the establishment’s shadow? This is the biggest hurdle. A concerted pushback from political parties, internal ranks, media, civil society, allied states and businesses will help, as would an end to internal and external tensions, political parties working together for progress, and greater military professionalism.
Asif Zardari who pushed reconciliation in his National Assembly speech can nudge all parties to talk as president, while using his vaunted reconciliation skills. All four must see that conflicts and political illegitimacy are pushing us fast towards doom.
Nevertheless, all this is a short-term remedy. Ultimately, new non-elitist parties must emerge. But the path to electoral democracy first may lead later to that end.
The writer is a political economist with a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley.
Published in Dawn, April 30th, 2024