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Weaker but still lethal
THE return of Narendra Modi as prime minister for a third term was foretold, but many doubted a landslide victory for his party. While they may be correct, he is still on the verge of winning his third consecutive term. Apparently, this time the BJP has also made some inroads in the south.
Voting ended on June 1 in India’s seven-stage elections, the longest and largest in the country’s history, that began in mid-April with almost a billion eligible people casting their votes across the country. The BJP-led coalition was challenged by the rival INDIA group, an alliance of disparate political parties led by Congress, in the contest for 543 seats. The opposition alliance has made significant gains, despite the BJP’s ultra-nationalist narrative.
Had Modi and his allies managed a two-thirds majority, it would have allowed the prime minister to bring some fundamental changes to the constitution, undermining India’s secular structure. In any case, a record third term would have serious implications not only for Indian democracy but also for regional geopolitics.
It is a personal triumph for the strongman prime minister whose Hindu nationalist politics have reshaped India’s secular democracy. No prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first premier, has won three consecutive terms. Modi’s last two terms brought the world’s most populous nation close to authoritarianism.
His election campaign pivoted around anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan rhetoric. He vowed to establish a Hindu state, shedding India’s long-standing secular identity, and his tenor against Pakistan turned extremely belligerent. A third term for right-wing Hindu nationalists is bound to have serious implications for the world’s largest democracy as well as regional geopolitics.
A third term for Modi could destroy India’s secular identity and democracy altogether.
There is a fear that the efforts to establish a Hindu supremacist state would formalise the second-class status of over 250 million Muslim citizens in law and practice. Under the Modi government, attacks on Muslims increased exponentially. There has been an increase in the number of lynching cases as well, as exemplified by reports of attacks on Muslim places of worship by Hindu extremist groups affiliated with the ruling party, with the connivance of the administration.
Modi’s dehumanising anti-Muslim language on the campaign trail was more direct than that of his past speeches. The BJP campaign fuelled concern among the Hindu majority that a victory for the opposition would lead to Muslim domination. In one of his election speeches, Modi asserted that the opposition Indian National Congress, if elected, would give the people’s property and gold to the Muslims. The party would “calculate the gold with [Hindu] mothers and sisters” and transfer it “among those who are infiltrators and have more children”.
The brazen continuation of such anti-Muslim rhetoric is what has differentiated this campaign from the two previous elections that Modi won. Modi’s campaign narrative made it absolutely clear that under his dispensation, the Muslims will be politically disempowered, economically marginalised, and deprived of their constitutional rights. He has vowed to expunge India of any historical Muslim influence.
Throughout the election campaign, the BJP constantly looked for issues that would click with the voters. The inauguration of the Ram temple on the ruins of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya a few months before the polls was a prime example of Modi’s increasingly communal politics.
Some Hindutva leaders have openly called for the extermination of Muslims. Human rights groups have been warning against an escalation in the scale of mass atrocities and an increased level of state involvement in such actions with the return of the BJP government.
A third term for the Modi government could destroy India’s secular identity and democracy altogether. A majoritarian Indian state, a Hindu rashtra, would strengthen bigotry, discrimination, and violence. The persecution is not limited to Muslims but extends to other religious minorities, such as Christians and Sikhs, too. Muslims, Sikhs, and Christians make up nearly one-fifth of the country’s population.
Hate speech is a criminal offence in India, and it is specifically barred during election campaigns, but no action was taken against Modi and other BJP leaders for indulging in it, thus raising questions about the impartiality and independence of the election watchdog.
Modi’s victory, even if diluted, is certainly not a good omen for Pakistan. Relations between the two countries hit a new low under the two previous Modi governments. It’s not surprising that the Indian prime minister had upped the ante against Pakistan on the election trail. Anti-Pakistan rhetoric has been one of the factors behind Modi’s previous electoral victories.
On the eve of the 2019 elections, the Indian prime minister launched an air strike inside Pakistan after false-flag attacks at Pulwama in India-held Kashmir that killed dozens of Indian soldiers. Retaliatory action by the Pakistan Air Force brought the two countries close to war. The Pulwama incident was used by the BJP government to whip up nationalist sentiments that contributed hugely to Modi winning his second term. Following the 2019 election victory, the second Modi government illegally annexed IHK in August that year. The action led to further weakening of diplomatic ties between Pakistan and India, blocking any possibility of normalisation.
BJP leaders are now threatening to take over Azad Kashmir. In a recent interview, the Indian defence minister boasted that India could easily annex Azad Kashmir, which is a part of the BJP’s election manifesto. The party’s rhetoric is built around taking control of all of Kashmir. Such provocative claims demonstrate the BJP’s growing bellicosity.
Political instability and an economic crisis in Pakistan have also provided the hard-line Hindu nationalists an opportunity to increase pressure on Pakistan. Now, a third Modi term promises to have disastrous consequences not only for India but also for Pakistan and the rest of the world.
The increasing social schisms created by Hindu nationalism has made the situation in India extremely combustible. That could damage India’s ambition to achieve superpower status.
The writer is an author and journalist.
X: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, June 5th, 2024
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