RAWALPINDI: The Nat­­ional Disaster Manage­ment Authority (NDMA) has activated its emerge­ncy centre in anticipation of rain in northern areas and Punjab, according to an official statement.

The action has been taken as the Pakistan Met­e­orological Department (PMD) has predicted a “vigorous” monsoon activity in the upper and central parts of the country during the week.

A press release issued on Monday said the Nat­i­o­nal Emergencies Opera­t­ion Centre (NEOC) has reported significant wea­ther activity from the Indian side, indicating intense cloud bursts in Pakistani areas based on predictive modelling.

“Repeated early warnings have been shared with all provinces, and moderate to heavy rainfall is lik­ely to start over the upper catchments of all major rivers, particularly Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab, from July 2,” the NDMA said.

This would increase water levels in rivers and cause flash flooding and urban flooding in metropolitan areas, the warning added. The expected rainfall could trigger a low to medium-level flooding in River Sutlej, with water levels expected to reach low flood levels (approximately 50,000 cusecs) by July 5 and high flood levels (approximately 120,000 cusecs) by July 10.

The authority has also issued an alert for lightning strikes in various cities of south and central Punjab, and Islamabad from July 5 to 7.

NDMA said it is working closely with federal and provincial departments to ensure preparedness and response to any potential emergency.

The authority also advised the public to closely monitor weather reports and flood situations and immediately follow evacuation instructions if issued by local authorities.

Heavy rain forecast

The PMD has said that strong monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal are likely to penetrate upper parts of the country from July 3.

Under the influence of this weather system, rain, wind and thundershower are expected in Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber and Mirpur in Azad Kashmir from July 2 to 7 with occasional gaps.

In Punjab, downpours are expected in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Murree, Galliyat, Attock, Chakwal, Talagang, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Wazirabad, Lahore, Sheikh­upura, Sialkot, Narowal, Sahiwal, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, Nankana Sahib, Chiniot, Faisalabad, Okara, Pakpattan, Kasur, Khushab, Sargodha, Bhakkar and Mianwali from July 2 to 7.

In the southern districts of Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, D.G. Khan, Multan, Khanewal, Lodhran, Muzaffargarh, Raja­n­pur, Rahimyar Khan and Lay­yah, rain and thundershower are expected from July 4.

In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, similar weather is expected in Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Malakand, Bajaur, Shangla, Battagram, Buner, Kohat, Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Peshawar, Mardan, Charsadda, Hangu, Kurram, Waziristan, Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan from July 3 to 7.

In Balochistan, hot and humid weather is expected in most districts, with isolated rain in eastern areas of Khuzdar, Kalat, Zhob, Barkhan, Jaffarabad and Naseerabad from July 3 to 7.

The weather in Sindh is also forecast to be hot and very humid, with rainfall expected in Mithi, Umarkot, Mirpu­rkhas, Sukkur and Larkana from July 4 to 7.

For Gilgit-Baltistan, the Met Department has forecast clo­udy weather with downpours in Diamir, Astore, Skardu, Gilgit, Ghanche and Shigar.

The Met Office also warned that torrential rains may cause flash floods in local nullahs of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Sial­kot, Narowal, Murree, Galliyat, Mansehra, Kohistan, Abbott­abad, Dir, Swat, Kashmir and Dera Ghazi Khan.

With water levels in eastern rivers likely to increase, urban flooding is expected in Lahore, Sialkot, Gujranwala, Narowal, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad and Peshawar. In northern areas, landslides may block roads in Murree, Galliyat, Kashmir and GB.

The advisory warned that heavy downpour, windstorm and lightning may affect lives, and damage structures like kacha houses, electric poles, billboards, vehicles and solar panels.

Farmers have been advised to manage their activities keeping in view of the forecast and tourists to check weather before making travel plans.

Published in Dawn, July 2nd, 2024