WHAT will Pakistan look like in 2047, a century after it achieved independence? Given its unstable politics, weak economy and fragile law and order, and the rapidly evolving global and regional geopolitics, it is not easy to predict Pakistan’s future. Therefore, projections must be based mainly on proposed reforms the country should legislate on and earnestly implement to reconstruct the economic trajectory it had once embarked upon during the 1950s and early 1960s.

Central to the proposed reforms is a clearly articulated vision and a detailed long-term economic plan. An overview of the recent past reveals that we failed to achieve results even when the planning was sound on paper. In 1990, Pakistan launched an ambitious programme of economic liberalisation. However, this programme fell victim to the political instability of the 1990s. Another attempt was made in the late 1990s to draft a vision and long-term plan in the form of Vision 2010. This was scuttled by the military coup of 1999.

In 2013, Pakistan’s 11th five-year plan for 2013-18 was launched as part of the medium-term Vision 2025. This was intended to be the first stage of a long-term vision leading to 2047. It appeared that Vision 2025 would not reach its logical end because of the acute political instability since 2017 and debilitating policy reversals that have shattered investor confidence.

The World Bank published a report five years ago in 2019, titled Pakistan@2047: Shaping the Future, which predicted that Pakistan could become an upper middle-income country by 2047, but that this aim would require accelerated and sustainable growth over a 30-year period. The report suggested several reforms: a focus on human capital through sustainable population growth and efficient public spending on education and health; a technology-savvy taxation system; a business regulatory framework free of red tape; a check on the unsustainable use of finite resources, particularly water; and fuller participation of the female labour force in the Pakistani economy.

Are we on our way to achieve our goals?

It also recommended public service delivery be made transparent and accountable by completely devolving responsibilities and resources to local governments. Political leaders, public officials, and service providers would also be held accountable.

The present government is working on Pakistan Outlook 2035 and Vision 2047 based on a study being prepared under the auspices of the Planning Commission and aimed at drawing up a roadmap for rapid socioeconomic development. Some details are available on the website of the Ministry of Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives. Reportedly, the study will pick up the seven pillars on which Vision 2025 was built, including human resource development, sustained growth, democratic governance, institutional reform, water and food security, an enhanced role for the private sector, a competitive knowledge economy, and greater regional connectivity. The study is also guided by the 5Es framework: exports, e-Pakistan, environment and climate change, energy, and equity and empowerment.

According to the planning minister, if we follow a path of stable politics and steady economic policies, Pakistan might become a trillion-dollar economy by 2035. Speaking at the Islamabad Business Summit 2024 recently, the minister affirmed Pakistan’s potential to achieve the targets of $2tr by 2047 with a growth rate of seven per cent and $3tr with a growth rate of 9pc.

These are commendable aspirations. However, given the ground realities, are we on our way to achieve these well-intentioned goals? Do we have the political and economic stability that can generate sustained economic growth and social de-velopment? Regrett-ably, there appears to be no sign of our political leaders being ready to work together to build a future of shared prosperity for all citizens. The country is in need of a consensus-based politico-economic vision to be able to say with confidence that by 2047, Pakistan will attain prosperity.

Everyone agrees that Pakistan has been endowed with the right mix of elements that could create a development bonanza: young human resource, fertile land, minerals-rich mountains, a great coastline, and an outstanding economic geography. With such resources, the country can certainly achieve the aspirational goals cited above, provided we can ensure political stability, law and order backed by an impartial judiciary, continuity of economic policies, a streamlined regulatory framework, tax compliance by all, an enhanced role for the private sector, efficient resource utilisation, non-partisan accountability, and a foreign policy that works for regional peace. This is indeed a tall order, but it is worth pursuing for a peaceful and prosperous 2047, the centennial year of our independence.

The write is chairman of Sanober Institute Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, July 28th, 2024