• Deep depression constantly moving towards Oman
• Meteorologist says storm does not pose ‘direct threat’, torrential rain in coastal areas till 31st likely
• Two killed as flash floods in Gilgit wash away infrastructure; Babusar Top receives unusual snowfall
• Seven killed as rain continues to lash Punjab; major reservoirs filled to brim; Hub dam may open spillways

KARACHI/GILGIT: With a deep depression lying at about 250km south/southeast of Karachi on Thursday and set to move west towards Oman, the coastal areas of Pakistan are bracing for a ‘rare’ cyclonic storm likely over the northeast Arabian Sea along Sindh’s coast.

Meanwhile, incessant rainfall across the country killed another nine people, induced flash floods, cut off road access, and filled major water reservoirs to the brim.

The deep depression over the Rann of Kutch, India, slowly moved west-southwestward over the last 12 hours. It would move west towards Oman parallel to Pakistan coast, but can produce torrential rains in southern districts including Karachi and along the Makran coast.

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In Punjab, seven people lost their lives and 18 others were wounded as heavy rain wreaked havoc in the province, destroying infrastructure and causing urban flooding in low-lying areas.

According to the Provincial Disaster Management Authority, deaths and injuries were reported from 2pm on Aug 28 to 2pm on Thursday.

Similarly, in Gilgit-Baltistan, two people — tourist included — died and three were wounded as rain caused landslides and flash floods in the region while blocking the Karakoram Highway and Baltistan Road.

Threat of rare cyclone

As rains are likely to lash most parts of the country, Sindh already battered by torrential rain braced itself for another spell of heavy rain till Aug 31 due to the cyclonic storm that was expected to be formed over the northeast Arabian Sea along its coast early Friday morning.

Met officials have described the formation of a cyclone in the monsoon season as a “rare phenomenon”.

“There is an 80 per cent chance for a cyclonic storm’s formation when the deep depression would move from land to the sea and get favourable conditions. “It would be a rare event as cyclones are uncommon in the monsoon season,” said Chief Meteorologist Dr Sardar Sarfaraz.

He explained it was due to the high vertical wind shear during the monsoon period that depressions formed in this season didn’t turn into cyclones.

Dr Sarfaraz said if the storm materialised it would be the first cyclone in the Arabian Sea in August since 1976 and would get the name ‘Asna’ suggested by Pakistan. He added that regional cyclones were assigned names according to a list prepared by a 13-country panel, including Pakistan.

The storm, however, does not pose a direct threat to the coastal areas of Pakistan, but its impact will still be felt in the form of torrential rains which could lead to urban flooding and inundation in low-lying areas, including Karachi. In light of the inclement weather conditions, the Karachi commissioner’s office has announced a holiday for schools on Aug 30 (Friday).

Speaking about the cyclones during the monsoon season, Dr Sarfaraz recalled these cyclones were short-lived.

“They start decaying within a few hours. This happens due to the change in the sea surface temperature and wind’s intensity and direction,” he said.

According to the department’s cyclone alert, the weather system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm by Friday and move initially in west/southwest direction.

“The deep depression over the Rann of Kutch, India, has slowly moved west-southwestward during the last 12 hours and now lies at about 250km south/southeast of Karachi.”

According to the Met department’s advisory, rain/wind-thunderstorms with scattered heavy/very heavy falls are likely in Awaran, Kech and Gwadar divisions during Aug 30 till Sept 1 with occasional gaps.

Sea conditions are likely to remain rough to very rough with squally winds 50-60km/hour gusting to 70km/hour.

Fishermen of Sindh are advised not to venture into the open sea till Aug 31 and those of Balochistan till Sept 1.

Flash floods in Gilgit

As flash floods and rainfall caused landslides, particularly in Diamer, and blocked key roads in Gilgit-Baltistan, Babusar Top received a rare light snowfall on Thursday.

In separate incidents, two people were killed and three were wounded. A local identified as Barkat was killed in a flash flood that hit Nayat Valley village near Chilas.

In another incident, a tourist vehicle on its way to Islamabad from Skardu was struck by falling rocks on the Baltistan Road in which a tourist was killed and three were injured.

Similarly, the Karakoram Highway remained blocked due to landslides and mudflow near Chilas for almost 10 hours before it was opened to light traffic. In Skardu, a flash flood damaged infrastructure, also inducing panic among patients admitted to the Combined Military Hospital, which fortunately remained safe.

Besides landslides and flooding in Skardu, Ghanche, Nagar, Hunza, Ghizer, Shigar and other areas faced similar events that disconnected the link roads and electricity supply. The GB administration warned of possible landslides and floods, flash floods till August 31 in light of a rain forecast.

Reservoirs filled to the brim

In Balochistan, the Hub Dam is expected to open spillways as heavy monsoon rains in the catchment areas of the Hub River continue to lash Dureji and Khuzdar areas of the Lasbela district.

“The water level of the Hub Dam reached 337 feet after heavy rains in the area and only two feet more water is needed for the reservoir to reach its full capacity of 339 feet,” Abdul Jabbar Zehri, executive engineer at the Hub Irrigation Department told Dawn.

Similarly, other major reservoirs of the country have also reached their capacity.

The cumulative water storage in major reservoirs — Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma — was recorded at 11.506 million acres feet (MAF) on Thursday, two per cent higher than the five-year average of 11.267 MAF.

According to the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), the Tarbela Reservoir filled to its maximum conservation level of 1,550 feet on August 19, 2024, a level that has been maintained to date. Likewise, the water level in Chashma Reservoir also stands at 648.50 feet, close to its maximum conservation level of 649 feet.

Mangla Reservoir was filled to 1,217.90 feet on Thursday, slightly above the five-year average of 1,217.45 feet and a storage of 5.455 MAF that was slightly more than the five-year average of 5.423 MAF.

Mangla Reservoir level is expected to improve further due to reduced irrigation demand, driven by the forecast of rainfall in the southern regions of the country and improved flows in the Indus and Kabul rivers.

If the current trends of inflows in the Jhelum River and releases from the reservoir continue through September 10, Mangla is likely to attain a level of 1,222 feet, 20 feet less than the maximum conservation level, with the potential for further improvement depending on the hydrological response of the Chenab River and rainfall in the Mangla Dam catchment area.

Khalid Hasnain and Imran Gabol in Lahore and Abdul Wahid Shahwani in Khuzdar also contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, August 30th, 2024