Amid restrictions on financing above the vehicle price of Rs3 million followed by the limited tenor of the loan payment, auto sector stakeholders are cautiously optimistic that the cut in interest rate from 22 per cent in June 2024 to 17.5pc on Sept 12 will boost auto sales.

Auto financing plunged for the 26th consecutive month to Rs227.3 billion in August 2024 from Rs368bn in June 2022. Banks’ lucrative offers, like no upfront payment or registration, exclusive insurance rates, flexible financing limits, etc have yet to lure buyers.

A private banker said market dynamics have taken a turn for the positive this month as some consumers are showing positive responses after a persistent drop in the Karachi Interbank Offered Rate to 17.46pc from the peak of 25pc in September 2023. “A few buyers are walking in, mainly for small car financing,” he said.

So far, The current month has been going without non-production days from Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL) and Indus Motor Company (IMC). PSMCL had kept its plant closed from Aug 1-23 and IMC from Aug 6-8.

While financing for small cars has seen positive signs, electricity bills are higher than monthly instalments, deterring buyers

According to Top Line Securities, IMC, in its corporate briefing held on Sept 11, said auto financing contribution to sales has decreased from 30pc to around 13-14pc.

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The declining interest rates, falling inflation and improved auto financing conditions are expected to increase car volumes. However, this outlook is highly dependent on political stability and other macroeconomic factors.

Dealers still feel that the prices of locally assembled vehicles are still unaffordable. The State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) strict regulations to suppress the demand for vehicles by putting an upper limit of Rs3m and a substantial reduction in loan repayment period from seven to three years may keep many buyers away from bank financing.

Head of Corporate Affairs, Pak Suzuki Motor Company Limited (PSMCL), Shafiq Ahmed Shaikh, believes that a single-digit interest rate will augur well for car sales, but the State Bank also needs to bring flexibility by jacking up the upper financing limit of vehicles and enhancing loan payment period.

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“The share of auto financing in the overall sales of Pak Suzuki vehicles was around 50pc based on single-digit interest rates a few years back, which is now unexpectedly very low,” he recalled. A car dealer said, “Currently, the market lacks buyers’ enthusiasm as they are still expecting a greater decline in the interest rate after the downward trajectory in food inflation.”

The State Bank’s curbs on auto financing hold no charm among the buyers who desire to buy vehicles worth Rs5m to Rs10m, he explained, adding that small cars with price tags of Rs3m to Rs4m may attract buyers towards bank leasing.

In case the interest rate further comes down, then it will take at least two months to witness its impact on auto sales, he said, adding that salaried group are still hesitant towards buying new vehicles due to vehicles’ high prices, unbearable loan instalment due to limited years, and soaring cost of living as a result of inflated power bills.

“In reality, exorbitant power bills have surpassed monthly auto loan instalments in many cases. It is impossible to go for financing when a consumer pays an Rs20,000-25,000 monthly electricity bill,” another auto dealer remarked, adding that auto financing may remain under pressure as long as the Rs3m cap and thin duration of loan payment remain in place.

Auto sector expert Mashood Ali Khan said the reduction in interest rates is a positive step, but it is unlikely to bring a significant improvement in the auto industry alone.

The industry still faces several challenges, especially high vehicle prices and increased maintenance costs, which are hitting middle-income families hard, he said, adding SBP’s restriction on financing above the vehicle price of Rs3m along with reduced purchasing power further constrains the market.

Mr Mashood said other industries that typically support auto sales have halted new vehicle purchases for employees, and several banks have closed their car financing departments during the last two years.

“Until the SBP reduces interest rates to a single digit, a major sales recovery seems unlikely,” he said. The government is still facing a significant challenge in bringing in dollars and rebuilding trust with industrialists. Strengthening economic policies and fostering a supportive environment for industries is crucial to overcoming these obstacles.

Another car dealer said a sort of uncertainty still prevails in the auto market despite lowering interest rates thrice.

In a volatile foreign exchange situation, an increase in demand for vehicles means a rising import of auto parts and accessories by the assemblers amid claims of higher localisation. As a result, the central bank may either keep restrictions on auto financing intact or come out with new curbs to control the outflow of dollars and current account deficit.

After an 18pc drop in sales of cars, light commercial vehicles, pickups and vans during FY24 to 103,827 units year-on-year, sales during 2MFY25 sales surged by 36pc to 17,288 units from 12,671 in the same period last fiscal.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 23rd, 2024