Pakistan is at a crucial juncture, facing both a growing brain drain and the global impact of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven job displacement. While AI transforms industries and automates jobs, some nations are turning to universal basic income (UBI) as a safety net.

Geoffrey Hinton, the “godfather of AI”, has warned that without such measures, AI could deepen inequality, benefiting only the wealthy. Unfortunately, despite its efforts, Pakistan has yet to adopt economic security strategies like UBI, and its slow adoption of AI threatens to unravel its economic and social fabric.

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The global AI revolution demands that Pakistan urgently integrate AI across key sectors, including healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, and energy. AI can boost productivity and unlock economic potential, but international collaboration and tech exports are also crucial for positioning Pakistan in the global arena. Reskilling the workforce is equally essential.

By focusing on tech education, talent development, and promoting freelancing, Pakistan can build a future-ready workforce while preventing further talent exodus. Based on the latest Pakistan Economic Survey for 2023-24, over 13.53 million Pakistanis have officially migrated to work in more than 50 countries by April 2024.

With a workforce vulnerable to automation, Pakistan must prioritise alternative strategies to keep up with the global tech revolution

But what happens when countries absorbing Pakistan’s talent face their own AI-driven job crises? AI is set to displace millions of jobs globally. Key destinations like Canada, the UK, Germany, and the US are already experiencing AI disruption. If opportunities abroad diminish, remittances may no longer ease economic pressure, leaving Pakistan’s youth with limited prospects both at home and abroad.

Globally, AI is projected to contribute $15.7 trillion to the economy by 2030, according to a PwC Global Artificial Intelligence Study. Yet, an International Monetary Fund analysis explains that AI exposes 40 per cent of global jobs to automation, with up to 60pc of jobs in advanced economies affected. In response, millions of workers are undergoing retraining, with employers prioritising AI skills by 2027.

When asked whether UBI could sufficiently mitigate AI-driven job displacement, experts remain uncertain. While UBI may provide relief in countries with strong social safety nets, it is less feasible for developing nations like Pakistan. With a workforce vulnerable to automation, Pakistan must prioritise alternative strategies — reskilling, sectoral reforms, and proactive policies — to protect jobs.

However, structural gaps in education, science, and technology impede Pakistan’s preparations. Poor execution of technological strategies, insufficient monitoring, and a lack of skilled resources prevent Pakistan from capitalising on AI opportunities. Without targeted reforms, the country risks falling behind in the global race for innovation.

A significant challenge lies in the disconnect between key stakeholders and the absence of a unified vision for science, technology, and higher education. Addressing these gaps is critical for creating an environment conducive to AI adoption. Yet, AI remains a low priority in national policies. Pakistan also lacks a comprehensive commercialisation framework for research and development, which hinders collaboration between researchers and industry.

The Technology Readiness Level (TRL) system, developed by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, could offer a structured approach to guide innovation from concept to market deployment. Without such frameworks, ad-hoc commercialisation of research limits its impact, weakening the bridge between academia and industry.

To mitigate the impact of AI and the ongoing brain drain, Pakistan must prioritise reskilling its workforce, including within government systems, by addressing inefficiencies and reducing bureaucratic redundancies. The focus should be on education in AI, robotics, and data science while enhancing productivity in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and mining to boost exports.

Executing and sponsoring agencies must ensure that innovation and collaboration are central to their upcoming public sector development projects, particularly in the PC-1s. Collaboration with existing tech centres and established entities, leveraging available resources and proven use cases, should be compulsory. These elements, set as key performance indicators, would help break silos, reduce duplication of effort, and optimise public investments for sustainable development.

Finally, the government must simplify doing business, particularly in technology and innovation, by implementing policy reforms and offering incentives. At the same time, sectors like tourism, agriculture, and mining should be enhanced with technology to boost productivity and meet employment needs.

By investing in AI, reskilling the workforce, and addressing structural gaps, Pakistan can safeguard against future unemployment and brain drain while positioning itself as a key player in the global AI revolution.

The writer is the Program Manager at the National Centre of Artificial Intelligence, Islamabad

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, September 30th, 2024