ISLAMABAD: Revenue collection surged to Rs1.10 trillion in September, raising expectations that the shortages from the previous two months would be bridged in the second quarter of 2024-25.

In September, tax collection exceeded the monthly target of Rs1.098tr by just Rs2 billion. The Rs98bn shortfall in the first two months of FY25 has now been reduced to Rs96bn.

The revenue collection in September saw an increase of 32pc compared to Rs833bn in the same month last year, showed provisional figures released on Monday.

Collection in the first quarter of FY25 stood at Rs2.556tr, a shortfall of Rs96bn or 3.62pc compared to the estimated target of Rs2.652tr for July-September.

However, the first quarter recorded a 25pc increase in revenue over the same months last year, at Rs2.041tr.

FBR paid Rs146bn in refunds to taxpayers in the first quarter, up from Rs129bn in the same period last year, representing a 13.17pc increase. The FBR paid Rs15bn in refunds in September compared to Rs37bn in the same month last year, a 59.45pc reduction.

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In the budget for FY25, the government projected a collection target of Rs12.970tr, more than 40pc higher than the collection set for FY24. The government believes that the additional revenue of Rs3.659tr will be achieved from three main factors. The FBR predicts that based on GDP growth of 3pc, real LSM growth of 3.5pc, inflation of 12.9pc and real import growth of 16.9pc in FY25, an automatic collection of Rs1.863 tr will occur in FY25.

The tax measures announced in the last budget will yield additional revenue of Rs1.345tr in FY25. However, the FBR forecasts that enforcement measures will produce an extra Rs451bn in taxes to meet the estimated target. In FY24, the FBR collected Rs9.311tr against the downward revised target of Rs9.252tr. Income tax collection increased by 31pc to Rs1.225tr in the first quarter, compared to Rs935bn in the same period last year.

Published in Dawn, October 1st, 2024