JOHANNESBURG: Mozambicans will vote in presidential and legislative elections on Oct 9 that are almost certain to extend the ruling Frelimo party’s half century in power, as it battles a long-running insurgency in one of Africa’s largest gas fields.

Ruling party candidate Daniel Chapo, a former radio announcer and law lecturer, is widely expected to replace Filipe Nyusi as president of the southeast African nation.

Here are some key issues facing one of the world’s poorest countries and its more than 34 million people as it heads to polls.

Insurgency

The militant Islamic State group launched an insurgency in the northern gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado in 2017, killing thousands of civilians, destroying livelihoods and internally displacing hundreds of thousands, aid agencies say. The insurgency has disrupted multi-billion-dollar energy projects.

Aided by regional troops and Rwanda, the government has contained the insurgency, but there has been a surge in deadly attacks since the start of the year.

Stalled gas projects

Before the wave of insurgent attacks, gas projects worth over $50 billion were earmarked for development. The projects were aimed at turning the country into a major liquefied natural gas (LNG) producer. French energy giant TotalEnergies halted work on its $20 billion LNG project and declared force majeure in 2021 after insurgents attacked the northern town of Palma, a logistics hub near the site. Its Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyann said in July the company hoped to chart a path to restart its LNG plant after the presidential election. Another LNG project led by Exxon Mobil and its partner Eni was also delayed. Exxon expects a final investment decision by the end of 2025.

Debt scandal

Mozambique is still reeling from a $1.5 billion-plus “tuna bond” scandal in which money lent to state-run firms for fishing fleets, funded in part by Credit Suisse, went missing.

Last year Credit Suisse, now owned by UBS reached an out of court settlement with Mozambique over the decade-old scandal, which prompted the International Monetary Fund and other donors to temporarily cut off support to the country, triggering a currency collapse and debt default.

Mozambique maintained that it was the victim of a conspiracy among shipbuilders, corrupt officials and banks. President Nyusi, who was defence minister at the time, denied any wrongdoing.

The scandal triggered criminal investigations from Maputo to New York, while senior Frelimo politicians were charged for their involvement, dealing a blow to the party’s image.

Climate shocks

Mozambique is one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, vulnerable to extreme climate shocks like droughts, cyclones and floods.

An El Nino induced drought has ravaged southern African countries, wiping out crops, including in Mozambique. Around 1.8 million people have been affected by the drought in central and southern parts of the country, the United Nations Mozambique said in August.

Published in Dawn, October 3rd, 2024