According to an inclusive latest report from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), a catastrophe associated with a weather, climate, or water hazard has occurred on average every day for the past 50 years, killing 115 people and costing $202 million a day’s worth of losses.

Floods lead to property and life losses and threaten economic development. Although floods cannot be prevented, proper growth and operative research could significantly diminish their adverse effects. Flood vulnerability could be abridged through exact and timely forecasting (prognosis and cautioning) and mitigating measures.

Therefore, understanding climate change and flood risk is essential to developing strategies for flood risk reduction and climate change adaptation. An increasing temperature trend has been recorded for the last several decades, mainly in Asia.

About 37 per cent of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are reported through the contribution of agricultural practices. Over time, climate change has made the monsoon system’s fluctuations more drastic in the Indian Ocean World, creating more significant and devastating storms in South Asia. Climate change amplifies floods, while economic, political, and agricultural practices increase flooding vulnerability.

Pakistan’s flood-prone woes may only get worse as climate change enhances flood frequency unless preventative measures are taken

Pakistan is ranked the fifth country most vulnerable to climate change and global warming, driving negative impacts on agriculture. Rising temperatures and shifting monsoons could permanently eliminate the viability of certain crops. Pakistan is ranked 10th climate change country in the world and causes significant flood damage, drought-prone region, and drives, poverty alleviation, migration rate, and food insecurity.

Pakistan is a flood-prone country with a history of extensive and recurrent flooding and droughts that have resulted in human and livestock casualties, significant damage to property and infrastructure, loss of crops and inputs, and land degradation. A particularly severe drought occurred nationwide in 1999, prolonged to 2000-2002. Similarly, the country experienced extreme flood history from 1935 to 2022.

In 2010, Pakistan experienced one of the most hazardous floods in its history. A fifth of the country was severely hit, resulting in significant economic losses and fatalities. The 2012 flood hit the districts of Dadu, Chotki, Jacobabad, Kashmore, Larkana, Qambar Shahdad Kot, Sukkur, Thatta, and Tharparkar in Sindh province. Damages assessed include flooded areas, villages, railway tracks, road networks, agricultural land, standing crops, and forestry. The flood of 2015 brought with it the same consequences.

The magnification of vulnerability during the devastation of flooding in Pakistan in the summer of 2022 was due to poor developmental planning, extractive political institutions, and climate change. The Indus Plains’ most productive regions suffered agricultural losses, worsening the nation’s vulnerable food supply.

The statistics show that 2.5m hectares, or 18pc of Sindh’s total land area, were flooded, of which 1.1m hectares were used for agricultural purposes. The extremely high rains, flash floods, and poor infrastructures damaged crops, leading to losses. Output for cotton, rice, and sugarcane was expected to decline by 88pc (3.1m bales), 80pc (1.8m tonnes), and 61pc (10.5m tonnes), respectively, following the study’s findings, which affected nearly 57pc (2.8m hectares) of Sindh’s farmland out of a total agricultural area of 4.9m hectares.

Pakistan has reported record-high temperatures of more than 40°C in numerous regions, including 51°C in Jacobabad, meanwhile, it is anticipated that the country’s average temperature will rise by 4.38°C in 2080

The population of 33m was stuck; 1.5m houses, $2.3m worth of standing crops, and 200km of highways were damaged, shutting off access to major cities. Increased food insecurity and inflation reached their highest level between 26-27pc.

Pakistan has faced inundating problems practically every year in the recent past. Eco­no­mic damage was assessed at $38.17 billion from 23 main flood events in Pakistan between 1947 and 2015. Between 1991 and 2005, floods caused $1.19 trillion worth of economic damages and killed 960,000 people.

It is projected that Pakistan will suffer more due to its geographical location, which is at risk of climate change. According to climate change predictions, catastrophic events like floods and droughts will happen more frequently due to high glacier melting rates, mountain cap thawing, and exceptional monsoon precipitation. The conditions require operational and sustainable flood management to reduce flood destruction.

By 2040, temperature is expected to have increased by 3°C. By the end of the century, temperatures are expected to have risen by 5-6°C, resulting in less productivity of agriculture output. By 2050, the world’s population is expected to increase by another 3bn, and 90pc of the 3pc will come from developing countries that rely on the existing land, water, and the environment for their well-being.

Pakistan has reported record-high temperatures of more than 40°C in numerous regions, including 51°C in Jacobabad. Additionally, it is anticipated that Pakistan’s average temperature will rise by 4.38°C in 2080.

Hence, coping strategies, including revamping agricultural extension services, are essential, given their pivotal role in ensuring food security. Extension services need capacity building to deal with the emerging challenges in agriculture. Sharing agricultural knowledge and good practices in extension and advisory provision can go a long way in strengthening these capacities and enhancing productivity and rural incomes.

Dr Abdul Ghani Soomro is a principal scientist at the PARC-Water and Agricultural Waste Management Institute, and Dr Aneela Hameem Memon is an agricultural engineer at PARC

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, October 21st, 2024