In FY24, Pakistan’s agriculture sector achieved a notable 6.25 per cent growth, while its crop sub-sector posted an impressive 16.82pc increase. Nevertheless, data from previous years reveals that crop performance has been highly inconsistent, with significant fluctuations both upward and downward, which can be explained by variations in weather conditions during critical stages such as germination, reproduction, and grain filling.

Recent climate changes, characterised by erratic rainfall patterns, increased frequency and intensity of heatwaves, and rising temperatures — with the 2010s being the hottest decade and 2023 the hottest year on record — have made crop performance further unpredictable and turned farming into an increasingly risky venture. In fact, it has further worsened the challenges for farmers, who are already grappling with rising production costs and falling crop prices.

In this context, 2024 has been especially challenging for farmers. Maize (spring crop) was adversely affected at pollination and grain filling stages due to frequent heat waves and unusually high temperatures (with +2.07°C anomaly) in May 2024. This resulted in a 20-30pc reduction in yields, wiping out farmers’ entire profits.

Sesame has become an increasingly popular choice among farmers of Punjab and Sindh in recent years due to its higher profitability, low production costs, and minimal irrigation needs. Its exports reached $0.41 billion in 2023-24, making the country the fifth-largest exporter globally.

Provincial ADPs focus on providing machinery, which farmers already possess, instead of focusing on the critical climate question

However, adverse weather conditions — higher temperatures and erratic rainfall — in this season have reduced yields by up to 50pc. In particular, unexpected rains during the harvest time significantly increased crop losses and severely impacted grain quality.

Rice (paddy), Pakistan’s largest export crop, is another noteworthy crop severely affected in 2024 by higher temperatures during the reproductive and grain-filling phases. This led to a significant increase in non-productive (empty) kernels, resulting in much lower yields compared to previous years. Additionally, the substandard hybrid seed, falsely marketed by seed companies as high-yielding, heat-tolerant varieties, contributed to the significant reduction in yields.

The potato crop is yet another affectee of this year. According to farmers’ reports, elevated temperatures this year have reduced the germination rate by 30pc in the Soon Valley (Khushab District), and the Sialkot cluster, known for early potato planting in late August and September.

Additionally, unusually high temperatures in early October also delayed potato planting by about 15-20 days in Pakistan’s largest potato-growing cluster comprising the Kasur, Okara, Pakpattan, and Sahiwal districts.

What makes matters worse is a recent warning from the Pakistan Meteorological Department, which indicates that reduced rainfall during this year’s post-monsoon period might lead to an early onset of fog and smog. This unusual combination of delayed planting and early fog is likely to deprive the crop of essential daylight (photoperiod), which would ultimately result in lower crop yields this season.

The agricultural sector suffers from underwhelming yields across myriad crops as the changing climate makes farming outcomes more unpredictable

While reviewing the Federal Public Sector Development Programme and the Annual Development Programmes (ADPs) of the provinces — the primary mechanism for introducing and promoting new technologies and agricultural practices in the country — it is difficult to find any significant government preparation or commitment to address this critical issue. Regrettably, the ADPs are more focused on dishing out equipment and machinery, much of which farmers already possess.

The situation necessitates devising and implementing adaptation strategies and solutions without further delay. First, increasing the availability of climate-resilient seed varieties, whether locally developed or imported, should be the foremost national initiative in the short to medium term.

However, equally important for the government is to enforce stringent regulations in the seed sector to prevent the supply of substandard seeds to farmers, which are frequently marketed with misleading claims that deceive farmers.

Second, it is vital to acknowledge that climate change may lead to a drastic reduction of crop area of certain crops in the future or, at best, their relocation to different regions within the country. The situation demands proactive consideration and planning not only to identify and introduce new crops that can perform better in the evolving climate conditions but also to relocate existing crops to more suitable agro-climatic zones.

Although this may seem odd at the moment, we need only look at the shifts in cotton cultivation patterns over the past three decades. In the 1990s and even in the 2000s, cotton was widely grown in several districts of central Punjab. However, uncertain rainfall patterns and rise in humidity levels due to climate change, increased areas of water-guzzling rice and maize, and shifts in irrigation practices made these regions less suitable for cotton, resulting in its cultivation being limited to South Punjab and Sindh only.

Third, farmers require targeted training in climate-smart crop production practices and technologies with a special emphasis on crop and varietal selection, applying a climate change lens, optimal crop sowing time, irrigation management, nutrient application, and pesticide use. In addition, farmers should be encouraged and assisted in diversifying their crops to reduce crop failure risk caused by over-reliance on mono-cropping or bi-cropping on a single piece of land.

Pakistan has consistently been ranked among the top ten most vulnerable countries on the Global Climate Risk Index. Due to increasing vulnerability, addressing the impact of climate change on agriculture is no longer optional; it is imperative to safeguard our future food security.

Khalid Wattoo is a farmer and a development professional, and Dr Waqar Ahmad is a former Associate Professor at the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, October 28th, 2024