Weed and elections

America’s politicians don’t agree often — but cannabis is emerging as an exception in this election. For the first time, marijuana reform has bipartisan support from presidential candidates, as both former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have voiced support for easing restrictions around the drug and reclassifying it as a less dangerous substance. Companies and investors welcome the support. The US cannabis industry is expected to net $32.3 billion in sales this year and reach $45.4 billion in 2028, according to the cannabis data firm BDSA. Loosening pot’s drug classification could drastically cut the tax burden of cannabis companies, open the door for more marijuana research and put pressure on Congress to provide the industry with wider banking access. As of Aug 31, 24 states and Washington, DC, have legalized adult-use cannabis. Seven other states have decriminalized its recreational use.

(Adapted from “The Rare Bipartisan Issue In This Year’s Election: Recreational Weed,” by Dean Seal, published on October 21, 2024, by the Wall Street Journal)

China’s reaction to Trump

Of all the people anxiously watching America’s presidential election, spare a thought for Chinese investors. China’s economy is already contending with a property slump that began more than three years ago and persistent deflation that began over 18 months ago. Now, investors must contemplate a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, bringing the threat of steep tariffs in his wake. After the election, attention in China will focus on a gathering of officials in Beijing three days later on November 8. The standing committee of the country’s legislature will approve a much anticipated package of fiscal measures.⁠ The figures released will reveal much about the mindset of China’s leaders. However, the details that China’s policymakers approve on November 8 will be hostage to what Americans decide on November 5, with the Communist Party possibly hoarding fiscal firepower to offset a possible trade war.

(Adapted from “Why China May Be Saving Its Bazooka For Donald Trump,” by The Economist, published by The Economist, on October 29, 2024)

OpenAI takes on Google

OpenAI has launched a search feature within ChatGPT, its viral chatbot, that positions the high-powered artificial intelligence startup to better compete with search engines like Google, Microsoft’s Bing and Perplexity. ChatGPT search offers up-to-the-minute sports scores, stock quotes, news, weather and more, powered by real-time web search and partnerships with news and data providers, according to the company. It began beta-testing the search engine, called SearchGPT, in July. The release could have implications for Google as the dominant search engine. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, Alphabet investors have been concerned that OpenAI could take market share from Google in search by giving consumers new ways to seek information online. The move also positions OpenAI as more of a competitor to Microsoft and its businesses.

(Adapted from “OpenAI Launches ChatGPT Search, Competing With Google And Microsoft,” by The Economist, published on October 24, 2024)

Hoodwinked by deepfakes

It seemed like just another video call. Earlier this year, a finance worker based in Hong Kong for Arup, a British engineering firm, logged in for what he thought was a routine team meeting. On the screen, he saw several colleagues, including the firm’s chief financial officer, who instructed him to transfer $26m to five different bank accounts. He complied. But the man on the call was not Arup’s CFO: it was a deepfake. Deepfake technology, which manipulates images and video using artificial intelligence, is increasingly realistic. It is rapidly being adopted by criminals mostly based in South-East Asia. Generative AI and machine learning are making the scams more effective and the deepfake scam explosion seems to have only just begun.

(Adapted from “Suck Up To Your Fake CEO,” by The Economist, published on October 24, 2024)

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 4th, 2024