ISLAMABAD: Pakistan might face the threat of substantial losses in the natural resource sector, encompassing agriculture, forestry and fisheries due to the effects of climate change by 2070, said a new report of Asian Development Bank.

The combined losses from these sectors in Pakistan are expected to be 12 per cent of GDP, which is the highest in the Asia-Pacific region, according to the Asia-Pacific Climate Report 2024, published by the Asian Development Bank.

By 2070, climate change under a high-end emission scenario could cause a total loss of 16.9 per cent of GDP across the Asia and Pacific. Most of the region would face more than 20 per cent loss.

Among the assessed countries and sub-regions, these losses are concentrated in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, India, the rest of Southeast Asia, high-income Southeast Asia, Pakistan, the Pacific and the Philippines.

Combined losses to the country are expected to be around 12pc of its GDP

The effects on labour productivity from heat waves are large and rank second or even dominate losses. While the GDP loss in 2070 from reduced labour productivity is found to be 4.9 per cent for the region, Pakistan is among the countries where the impact would be 10.4 per cent. The impact on India would be 11.6pc followed by Vietnam (8pc).

Whereas the sea-level rise is the largest source of economic losses in 2070, in the 2030s, most economic losses are driven by effects on labour productivity and energy demand.

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Losses related to sea-level rise and storm surges accelerate over time, because of the combined effect of sea-level rise itself accelerating, storm surges exacerbating the acceleration effect, and the cumulative effect on economic growth of costs to rebuild damaged capital.

The largest economic impacts of climate change will occur in areas with lower relative incomes, such as Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Indonesia, the rest of Southeast Asia, Vietnam, and the Pacific, through increased coastal inundation, lower labour productivity, and lower natural resource productivity.

The poor communities are likely to be the most affected by these calamities, the ADB warned, adding that climate change will drastically alter the living conditions for people in developing Asia.

The most pronounced impacts of climate change in the region will be felt in the frequency, duration and severity of heat waves, followed by shifts in precipitation patterns that will elevate flood risks and increase drought occurrences.

The ADB said more severe storms and rising sea levels are expected to increasingly threaten low-lying coastal areas, including coastal megacities where populations and economic assets are heavily concentrated.

If the climate crisis continues to accelerate, up to 300 million people in the region could be threatened by coastal inundation, and trillions of dollars of coastal assets could be damaged annually by 2070, the report further warned.

The report cautioned that by 2070, climate change under a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario, rising to 41 per cent by 2100 that could cause a total of 17pc of GDP across the Asia Pacific region.

Most of the Asia and Pacific region is expected to be wetter in the future, as warmer air can hold more moisture and increased temperatures increase oceanic evaporation.

However, this overall trend masks substantial variations by locality. In South Asia, precipitation would increase by around 50pc by 2100 under 4.7 centigrade of mean global warming and, in East Asia, it would increase by around 25pc, whereas Southeast Asia could expect a mixture of increases and decreases.

According to the report, annual financing needs for adaptation in the region are estimated to be between $102 billion and $431 billion.

Nearly half of modelled needs are for coastal and river flood protection. The needs far exceed the approximately $34 billion of tracked adaptation finance that was committed in the region in 2021–2022.

The policymakers must continually revisit and improve predictions of impacts and systematically test adaptation measures to ensure that adaptation policy addresses evolving challenges, the report emphasised.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2024