An election about the economy

In the run-up to the US elections, roughly 40pc of voters said the economy was their top issue, far outstripping any other issue, and those voters favoured Donald Trump by 60pc to 38pc. Many weren’t thinking about the streak of robust economic growth or the Federal Reserve’s potential soft landing when they voted, but their grocery bills and out-of-reach ambitions. Americans are still feeling sticker shock from higher prices on everything from cleaning supplies to a cup of coffee that followed the pandemic. Their anger about the economy extended beyond prices to encompass wider discontent and anxiety over the future. Many Americans are frustrated that they can’t afford to buy a home or start a family. Fewer believe that the American dream is achievable. Trump put the cost of living front and centre in his pitch, claiming in his nomination acceptance speech that “inflation will vanish completely” under his watch. While Democrats touted the economy’s strength, many voters said the economy as they knew it was broken.

(Adapted from “How Trump Won The Economy-Is-Everything Election,” by Rachel Louise Ensign, Rachel Wolfe and Justin Lahart, published on November 6, 2024, by the Wall Street Journal)

Presidential image generation

OpenAI estimates that ChatGPT rejected more than 250,000 requests to generate images of the 2024 US presidential candidates in the lead up to Election Day, the company said in a blog. The rejections included image-generation requests involving President-elect Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris, President Joe Biden, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Vice President-elect JD Vance, OpenAI said. The rise of generative artificial intelligence has led to concerns about how misinformation created using the technology could affect the numerous elections taking place around the world in 2024. The number of deepfakes has increased 900pc year over year, according to data from Clarity, a machine learning firm. Some included videos that were created or paid for by Russians seeking to disrupt the US elections, US intelligence officials say. In its blog, OpenAI said it hadn’t seen any evidence that covert operations aiming to influence the outcome of the US election using the company’s products were able to successfully go viral or build “sustained audiences.”

(Adapted from “ChatGPT Rejected More Than 250,000 Image Generations Of Presidential Candidates Prior to Election Day,” by Hayden Field, published on November 8, 2024, by CNBC)

Threats to FMCGs

Procter & Gamble and Unilever are among the big packaged goods companies that would be exposed if US President-elect Donald Trump goes ahead with a threat to impose tariffs on Mexico, data seen exclusively by Reuters shows. Trump warned days before his win against Harris that he would hit Mexico and China with 25pc tariffs unless both governments moved to stop the flow of fentanyl into the United States. While consumer companies have spoken publicly about their investments in Mexico to create a supply chain hub for the United States, the degree to which those supply chains expose them to US protectionism has not previously been reported. About 10pc of P&G’s third-quarter shipments were from Mexico, according to bill of lading figures shared exclusively with Reuters by import data provider ImportYeti.

(Adapted from “Exclusive: Unilever, Procter & Gamble Face Risk From Trump’s Threatened Mexico Tariffs,” by Richa Naidu, published on November 7, 2024, by Reuters)

US stock market rally

The stock market climbed to another round of records last Friday, as the Dow and S&P 500 wrapped up their best week in a year after Donald Trump’s election win. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 259.65 points, or 0.59pc, to close at 43,988.99. The blue chip average traded above 44,000 for the first time ever during the session. The S&P 500 gained 0.38pc to close at 5,995.54, after briefly trading above 6,000 for its own milestone. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lagged, up just 0.09pc to 19,286.78, but set an intraday record high as well. All three averages finished the week at record closing levels. It was a strong week across the board for equities, due in large part to last Wednesday’s huge rally following Trump’s victory.

(Adapted from “Dow Tops 44,000 for First Time, S&P 500 Closes At Record High To Cap Election Week Rally: Live Updated,” by Jesse Pound and Hakyung Kim, published on November 9, 2024, by CNBC)

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, November 11th, 2024