IT’S not easy being a child in Pakistan. Just this past week, children across the country have endured the following: some caught polio; some were targeted in sectarian violence; millions were exposed to toxic levels of air pollution; some were dragged out of their school vans at gunpoint and kidnapped; millions had to stay away from their schools due to environmental degradation and political instability.

And that’s aside from the systemic issues. Twenty-six million children are permanently out of school; 70 per cent of all 10-year-olds cannot read or understand basic texts. According to 2018 data, Pakistan has one of the highest rates of child malnutrition in the developing world, with 33pc of children underweight and 44pc stunted. Almost 800,000 are severely wasted, says Unicef. Meanwhile, climate shocks, including droughts, floods and heatwaves, are affecting Pakistani children, undermining their access to food, healthcare and education. And this challenge will be exacerbated as the number of children affected by climate crises will increase fourfold by 2050.

This is the baseline for Pakistani children in a world that is not going to be kind to them over the coming decades, as made clear in The Future of Childhood in a Changing World, a new Unicef report.

We cannot ignore this demographic. By the 2050s, Pakistan will be among the four countries that is home to one-third of the world’s children, along with India, China and Nigeria. We will have 129m children, comprising 32.9pc of the population (around 5.5pc of the global child population). Indeed, Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world where the percentage of children in the population remains stable — rather than reduces — over the coming decades.

The world will not be kind to Pakistan’s children.

There will be some differences in the state of childhood over the next quarter century, however. The report captures these in the form of ‘megatrends’ set to define childhood through the 2050s: demographic transitions, climate and environmental crises, and the growing prevalence of frontier technologies.

Here’s what this means for us: more Pakistani children will live in urban settings, which bring different pressures ranging from heatwaves to severe inequality (for example, the report points out that urban children in the poorest quintile are twice as likely to die before they turn five than children in the richest quintile). More children will also migrate (internally or abroad), and so endure the challenges of displacement and dislocation, including issues ranging from food insecurity to family disruption. And more will be the victim of environmental hazards. The severe toll of this over the coming years is best understood by considering a contemporary — and currently horribly relevant — data point: that air pollution is the second leading risk factor for death in children younger than five years.

Much of the report focuses on the potentially transformative role of new technologies: “Connectivity and digital skills, when used correctly in learning environments, could equip millions for future jobs, boosting economies and breaking generational cycles of inequality. AI and neurotechnology could drive transformations in education and healthcare.” But the report is quick to recognise that technological advances and resulting advantages will not be evenly spread. Today, over 95pc of people in high-income countries have an internet connection, compared to 26pc in low-income countries. Poor investment in digital infrastructure, lack of funding, and growing obsessions with limiting internet permissions means that this digital gap will not be addressed anytime soon, and may in fact worsen.

Pakistan is not currently on a trajectory to reap the benefits of neurotechnologies or artificial intelligence. Instead, our youth will be subject to their pitfalls — surveillance, exploitation, manipulation and discrimination. The spread of AI will only worsen the digital divide experienced by young Pakistanis, particularly those who are already marginalised on the basis of language, ethnicity or gender.

Some may remember how at the turn of the century Pakistan was in a thrall to fantasies about how the country would reap its demographic dividend. Two decades in, we know that the predicament of our youth will be dire — much as described at the outset of this piece, possibly worse — unless significant additional investment is made in education, healthcare, job creation, climate resilience and adaptation, digital literacy and infrastructure, and maternal and infant health.

Instead of prioritising these, our state is squandering its resources on quashing pol­itical opposition and stifling free speech. In the name of national security, we are forgetting to secure the nation’s greatest asset and treasure — its children.

The writer is a political and integrity risk analyst.

X: @humayusuf

Published in Dawn, November 25th, 2024