WITH the world moving the way it is, one cannot help but recall the words of Zbigniew Brzezinski, a professor at Harvard who served former American president Jimmy Carter as his national security advisor, who in 1997 famously outlined a nightmare scenario in his seminal book, The Grand Chessboard.

He warned of the potential alignment of Eurasian powers — Russia, China, and Iran — into a unified bloc capable of challenging the global dominance of the United States. Decades later, this prediction seems alarmingly relevant as we witness the resurgence of Cold War dynamics.

The ongoing geopolitical fragmentation has led to what many analysts describe as Cold War 2.0, where the US and China are locked in indirect confrontations. The Ukraine conflict exemplifies this dynamic.

While the US backs Ukraine, China quietly supports Russia by purchasing oil, providing economic liquidity, and allegedly supplying critical components like microchips for advanced weapon systems. In the Middle East, China plays a strategic role by purchasing significant quantities of oil from Iran, bolstering its economy despite strict international sanctions.

During the first Cold War that had the US and the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) as the prota-gonists, tensions between the great powers were often played out through numerous bloody proxy conflicts across the globe. Today, we see a similar pattern emerging.

As global tensions rise, the Middle East has become a central arena for these proxy wars. The dramatic fall of the Assad regime in Syria mirrors the proxy warfare of the past, where global powers vie for influence without engaging in direct conflicts.

This escalation is quite reminiscent of the Cold War era, where such indirect confrontations became the hallmark of superpower rivalries. However, China and the US are deeply entangled in a complex web of economic interdependence, setting this new Cold War apart from the US-Soviet rivalry, which lacked significant economic ties.

During the original Cold War, the US effectively built alliances through econ-omic incentives, offering a viable alter-native to Soviet influence. Today, however, a ‘divorce’ between the US and China would have devastating economic consequences for the global economy.

In this new era, countries are being forced to make rather hard choices that will shape their future alignments and strategies.

Traditionally, even neutral countries, like, say, Sweden, are now redefining their stances. Sweden’s recent Nato membership represents its first military alliance since the Napoleonic Wars (1803-1815), underscoring the rapidly shifting global landscape and the realignment of nations into opposing blocs.

For Pakistan, these shifting dynamics present a critical question: where does it stand in this fragmented world? Historically, Pakistan has navigated great power rivalries adeptly, but the stakes today are higher.

As the war that began in Eastern Europe spreads to the Middle East and potentially East Asia, the words of newly-elected Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resonate: “Today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia.” This intensifying global conflict requires nations to reassess their strategic alignments and economic dependence. For Pakistan, balancing its historical ties with China and maintaining relations with all the Western powers will be rather crucial in navigating this era of a renewed global polarisation.

Adil Hanif Godil
London, UK

Published in Dawn, December 14th, 2024