COLOMBO: A solemn vow by the veteran Tamil rebel leader that his people will now pursue their own independent state has set the stage for a return to full-scale war in Sri Lanka, analysts said on Tuesday.

“He has gone for a declaration of war,” former Tamil separatist turned politician Dharmalingam Sithadthan said.

Velupillai Prabhakaran, the ruthless leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for more than three decades, accused the Colombo government of waging war under cover of the island's peace process.

The 2.5 million Tamil minority were left “with no other option but an independent state,” Prabhakaran declared on Monday night in an annual policy speech.

“All these days what we had was 'undeclared war'. Now he is saying that he has ditched the peace process and is taking the 'Eelam' route, meaning a separate Tamil nation on the Sinhalese-majority island.

“There is very little chance of the peace process being revived,” Sithadthan said.

“After all-out war, maybe the two sides might come again for talks, it could be in about a year or more.

The ex-rebel also suggested that the current monsoon gave the LTTE an advantage over the army.

“He (Prabhakaran) is not using heavy artillery and heavy armour. The weather favours the LTTE. He could go in for a big push immediately,” Sithadthan warned.

Any hope of reviving peace talks, which collapsed in Geneva in October, appeared dim, noted Sunanda Deshapriya, the director of Sri Lanka's independent Centre for Policy Alternatives.

“Prabhakaran has not directly said that he is resuming an armed struggle, but the message is clear,” Deshapriya noted. “He can't negotiate for a separate state” with the government.

He too predicted an escalation in fighting, which has already left more than 3,400 people dead this year as foreign peacebrokers tried to keep a 2002 ceasefire alive.

“Neither side has a tactical advantage at the moment so we will see both trying to gain the military upper hand in the short term,” the director said.

The Tiger chieftain has gone back on a 2002 pledge to accept a federal solution extending broad autonomy to the north and east -- a commitment that led to the ceasefire and years of Norwegian-brokered peace talks.

Prabhakaran warned that Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapakse, “by openly advocating attacks on our positions, has effectively buried the CFA (Ceasefire Agreement).”The guerrilla leader stopped short of declaring independence, but stressed the peace process was over with the Sinhalese nationalist-led government elected a year ago.

“It is now crystal clear that the Sinhala leaders will never put forward a just resolution to the Tamil national question,” he said.

Retired Sri Lankan brigadier general Vipul Boteju bemoaned the government's failure to offer a political way out of the conflict.

“We don't have a political solution and unless we have a package for the Tamils, the LTTE cannot be isolated from the Tamil community. Prabhakaran has clearly ended the peace process,” he said.

The LTTE chief himself suggested the conflict would resume and urged international recognition of the “freedom struggle at this historic time when the Tamils are recommencing their journey on the path of freedom”. The rebels stepped up artillery fire Tuesday against military bases in the east killing at least one soldier.

In November 2005, Prabhakaran gave the new government one year to find a political solution to Asia's longest-running ethnic conflict, which has claimed at least 60,000 lives.

“He (Rajapakse) rejected our final call ... Instead, he intensified the war,” while talking about peace, the LTTE chief said on Monday from a jungle hideout.

Prabhakaran's address was closely-watched by Sri Lankan leaders as well as in donor countries.—AFP