COLOMBO: As Tamil militant planes flew sorties over the national capital last week, the attention of political leaders were diverted from a worse disaster unfolding on the ground — flash floods, attributed by scientists, to climate change.

No discussions followed either by the government or the otherwise active non-governmental sector on the dangers of global warming, although a United Nations panel had, in the same week, warned of the dangers posed by rising temperatures and sea levels. Just days before the meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Bangkok, the Geneva-based organisation’s vice-chair Prof. Mohan Munasinghe had told the news agency in an interview: “No one takes it (climate change) seriously because it is something that doesn’t happen, today or tomorrow.”

But the deluge on Thursday seemed to be like a portent of things to come. Most of the business areas in the sea-facing capital were flooded, traffic came to a standstill and several deaths occurred, including that of a woman who vanished down an unprotected storm-water drain. The ‘high intensity’ rains continued through Friday and Saturday.

“High intensity rain is when rain that should happen over a period of time or many days comes down on one day and that’s what happened on Thursday,” noted Kusum Athukorala, a water resources specialist.

“This is the impact of climate change. But blame should fall on bad governance and politicians who have allowed unauthorised constructions and encroachment on wetlands, swamps, and river,’’ Athukorala, who has been battling with local politicians for years over these issues, said.

What happened in Colombo had an eerie similarity, to the floods that hit the Indian port city of Mumbai in July 2005 that caused hundreds of deaths. Experts then concluded that the carrying capacity of that metropolis had been seriously affected by rampant unauthorised construction that choked waterways and killed protective vegetation.

Importantly the Mumbai floods were attributed by top scientists, including he chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, to climate change. They then predicted that other Asian port cities could become similarly vulnerable unless drastic steps were urgently taken.

Shanthi de Silva, professor in agriculture engineering at the Open University of Sri Lanka, believes that given rising temperatures and sea levels Colombo may buckle under the strain of intensive rainfall in coming years. “We just don’t have the infrastructure to cope with floods in the city,” she said, adding that her data is based on studies she conducted at a British university last year which has developed new models to ascertain the impact of climate change.

According to her studies, rainfall in the months of April and May in wet areas (including Colombo) will double from previous years while it would get drier in the dry zone. “The impact on biodiversity would be enormous.”

The economic fallout from global warming for poor countries like Sri Lanka however is the most ignored factor in the debate over climate change. Environmentalists in Colombo believe that the industrialised world will benefit from global warming at the expense of the poorer countries.

Piyal Parakrama, executive director of the Centre for Environmental and Nature Studies, says global warming will reduce food production in tropical countries like Sri Lanka, while reducing winters in the United States and Europe. “Reduced winters would allow more food production days in the West. We would face a food crisis, food security and be forced to import from the West.”

The impact of global warming on biodiversity is already palpable. “There is talk that crows built their nests late this year forcing the koha (koel) to delay its arrival during the Sinhala and Hindu new year last month,” she said, attributing this to climate change. Koels, which encroach on crow’s nests, herald the dawn of the new year with their high-pitched cries.

Parakrama said the flowers of several plant species are already blooming off-season — although the phenomenon is yet to attract research that might firmly link it to climate change.

Other signs such as the bleaching of the colourful coral formations off the southern coastal town of Hikkaduwa, a well-known tourist destination, are however better accepted thanks to better international research on the subject.

Deepthi Wickremesinghe, a zoologist attached to the University of Colombo, says climate change will certainly affect marine life in and around the island and perhaps even amphibians like toads and frogs that are the natural predators of mosquitoes and other vectors.

“Unfortunately we don’t have any research or evidence of the potential impact of climate change on the amphibian population and we can only go on assumptions,” Wickremesinghe said. She added that very little attention was being paid to this particular field of research.

There are fears for the future of eco-tourism that is being aggressively promoted to showcase the country’s waterfalls, rainforests and rich biodiversity that range from the tea-growing highlands to the sparkling beaches. Tourism has already taken a knock from the fierce ethnic strife on the island.

“I have been advising Sri Lankan presidents for many years now but not all my advice has been heeded,” said Munasinghe, a globally-acknowledged specialist on energy and climate change, referring to government priority being bestowed on the civil war rather than climate change.

Munasinghe said, earlier, that much of the north and east of the island over which the main battles are being fought by Tamil rebels and government troops could go under the sea in the next two or three decades.

Changing temperatures could see mosquito populations shifting from the lowlands to the hilly areas, resulting in sporadic outbreaks of malaria, dengue and mosquito-borne diseases, experts say.

What is most worrisome, said Parakrama, is effect that changing weather patterns can have on Sri Lanka’s rich biodiversity which makes it one of the world’s major hotspots. “Rainforests need a stable climate to maintain this biodiversity — if there are erratic weather patterns, it’s a problem,” she said. —Dawn/The IPS News Service