LAHORE, Nov 28: Will Gen Pervez Musharraf’s decision to relinquish his army post impact Pakistan’s political situation in the run-up to the Jan 8 elections? A great deal depends on how the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) react to the changed political situation and reposition themselves accordingly, say analysts.

Although Musharraf met a major demand from the opposition by handing over the army’s command to Gen Ashfaq Kayani on Wednesday, his act has failed to satisfy the PPP and the PML-N.

PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto and PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif insist they are not ready to work with him even as a civilian president.

Even though Musharraf is scheduled to take oath as civilian president today (Thursday), the political situation remains murky at the moment.

“The main thing to be watched is political situation unfold over the next one week or two after Musharraf becomes a civilian president and when emergency is lifted,” says Dr Rasul Bux Rais, a Lahore-based political analyst. “That is expected to bring about a major change in the attitudes of the opposition parties.”

Analysts say Musharraf’s powers as a civilian president to “manipulate” national politics will be diluted as he himself has stated many a time in the past that his uniform was a source of strength for him to act decisively.

Now he will have to turn to the new army chief before taking vital decisions, says another analyst.

“The future is certainly going to be tough for Musharraf,” Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Lahore-based defence and political analyst, says.

Analysts do not rule out confrontation between Musharraf and Benazir and Nawaz, which may rob him and the forthcoming elections of legitimacy he is seeking to stay in power as a civilian president for another five years. In that scenario he will have to heavily depend on the PML-Q to ensure that his rule is legitimised after the elections.

“The future course of politics in Pakistan depends upon Nawaz, who has emerged as the key figure after his return home,” says Dr Rais. “If he decides to boycott the elections and confronts Musharraf, he will deprive the elections of integrity. Even Benazir’s participation will not be able to legitimise the electoral process. But if Nawaz decides to take part in the electoral process under Musharraf and his arrangements, he will be history.”

Dr Rizvi says that the future course of country’s politics hinges upon how Benazir and Nawaz look at the elections. “The PML-N leader has been giving tough statements since his return home. But Benazir is careful and keeping all her options open. It is difficult to get the drift of national politics at the moment. Things will become clearer in the next few days,” he says. He thinks the PML-N could boycott the elections if its leader Nawaz is disqualified from the contest.

The PML-N is expected to take a final decision whether to boycott the elections or not in the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) meeting scheduled for today (Thursday). In spite of repeated statements from the PML-N leaders to boycott the polls, there is strong view that it should and it will take part in the elections.

The best option for the PML-N is to participate in the elections and build momentum for a movement in case the elections are rigged, says another analyst.

The PPP has already indicated to participate in the elections under ‘protest’ and is unlikely to go for a boycott.

As Benazir is being alleged by many to have undermined her credibility by staying away from the ongoing pro-democracy movement led by lawyers as well as media’s campaign against curbs on their freedoms, many people view the return of Nawaz, in spite of Musharraf’s strong opposition, as an attempt by the establishment to thwart the PPP’s electoral chances in Punjab and prevent it from staking a claim for power.

There is a feeling that the establishment wants the two factions of the Muslim League bury the hatchet and make up with each other. The theory is based on the old logic that the voters are divided on the pro- and anti-Bhutto feelings. There is also a view that the establishment is working on some plan to ensure that the PML-N and the pro-Musharraf PML-Q reach some sort of power-sharing adjustment before or after the elections.

Nawaz has so far ruled out such a possibility, but has indicated his willingness to take back those PML-Q leaders “who had not undermined him or his party during the last five years” on a case to case basis.

PML-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and his cousin, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, who is being touted as his party’s candidate for the office of prime minister, are not ruling out some sort of adjustments with the PML-N after the elections.

“You cannot rule out anything in Pakistan. If Musharraf can meet Benazir and if Nawaz Sharif can return Pakistan before the elections, everything is possible,” says former railways minister Sheikh Rashid. Without specifying in so many words, he says that certain forces in his constituency in Rawalpindi are working on post-election adjustments between the two factions of the Muslim League.