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Published 08 Dec, 2007 12:00am

Dollar falls against euro after US data

LONDON, Dec 7: The dollar came under pressure against the euro on Friday after lacklustre US jobs data was followed by weak consumer confidence figures, casting fresh doubts on the US economic outlook, dealers said.

They said the market had been waiting for key November non-farm payrolls but the outcome -- 94,000 new jobs, down from 170,000 in October but above forecasts for 70,000 -- was inconclusive.

The University of Michigan measure of US consumer confidence then showed a fall to a two-year low of 74.5 in December from 76.1 in November, unsettling players.

In European deals, the euro was firmer at $1.4651, up from $1.4621 early in the day and $1.4633 late on Thursday in New York.

Paul Ashworth at Capital Economics said the consumer confidence data illustrated how US household spending will likely slide sharply even though the labour market is holding up better than expected.

Others were more positive, suggesting the jobs data should mean the US Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates drastically when it meets next week and that should provide some yield support for the dollar.

“We think the data argue for a limited monetary policy response from the Fed,” said Thomson IFR Markets’ Jeoff Hall.

Market forecasts are generally for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points from 4.50 per cent next week although some have speculated the reduction could be for 50 basis points given the problems of a major credit squeeze sparked by a collapse in the housing market.

On Thursday, the Bank of England reduced its lending rate by 25 points to 5.50 per cent but the European Central Bank, stressing its inflation concerns, left its on hold at 4.00 per cent.

This helped the euro, which some analysts said was also given a lift by German industrial output data, though the gains were limited.

“October’s fall in German industrial production suggests that the industrial recovery might be starting to lose some steam but the sector remains a strong support to the economy for now,” said Jennifer McKeown at Capital Economics.

Mckeown noted that on an annual basis, industrial output was up an adjusted 6.0 percent, a “strong rate” despite being “some way off of the highs of around 8.0 percent reached earlier this year.” Others were less optimistic.

“The air is cooler, and it’s getting darker,” Bank of America economist Gilles Moec commented. “After a lively summer, German industry is showing signs of fatigue.”

In European trade on Friday, the euro was at 163.79 yen, up from late Thursday’s 162.84, at 0.7224 pounds (0.7215) and 1.6564 Swiss francs (1.6533).

The dollar stood at 111.76 yen (111.28) and 1.1306 Swiss francs (1.1295).

The pound was at $2.0286 ($2.0278).—AFP

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