ISLAMABAD, Dec 15: There are fears that the current wheat flour crisis will persist for the time being if the government fails to deal with the shortages in an effective fashion.

Reports sent to the federal food ministry by intelligence agencies and mill-owners suggest that 2.1 million tons of flour may cross into Afghanistan from Pakistan this year compared to just 0.6 million tons last year, indicating that the present atta crisis may persist for another two-and-a-half months, it is learnt.

Sources told Dawn that the federal ministry of food, agriculture and livestock (Minfal) has received two separate reports from para-military forces deputed along Pakistan-Afghan border and the Sindh-based flour mills, and after going through both the reports, the Minfal has warned the government that the present flour crisis may persist till the end of February and even early March until the new wheat crop is harvested in Sindh and the Barani areas.

These sources said there was a huge difference between the statistics of the intelligence report and the data provided by the mill-owners.

The intelligence report revealed that this year, 1.5 or 1.6 million tons of flour will be exported to Afghanistan, about one million ton more than that of last year’s.

According to this report, about 133,000 tons of flour was being supplied to Afghanistan every month compared to the official statistics, according to which only 50,000 tons of flour is exported to the neighbouring country each month.

The report submitted by the millers, however, reveals that a minimum of 2.1 million tons of flour will be supplied to Kabul this year — some 175,000 tons monthly and 1.5 million tons more than last year’s.

Sources said millers had also informed the government that final figures for the year could even cross 2.2 million figure keeping in view the increased demand for atta in Afghanistan in the winter season that could last till March.

“We have analysed both the reports and come to the conclusion that this year, there will be at least three times increase in flour export to Afghanistan from Pakistan,” a high-level official of Minfal told Dawn, requesting not to be named.

He said the final 12-month flour export figures to Afghanistan could even jump up to 2.4 million tons. And, no doubt it was having repercussions for domestic consumers.

Another official said that Minfal highups wondered how could para-military forces send an intelligence report to the ministry in which figures are in contrast to factual position.

He said there was a dire need to form a special committee to investigate the real situation along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and determine the exact amount of flour that entered Afghanistan from Pakistan.

He said smuggling of flour to Afghanistan was not a new phenomenon. A number of earlier reports had suggested involvement of some of the border authorities in smuggling activities.

“We can’t keep our own people hungry for the sake of the so-far failed policy of Strategic Depth,” the official said.

“When we can improve our relations with Afghanistan on many other fronts, then why only the diplomacy of flour?” he asked.

The government this month started providing 0.7 million tons of wheat to domestic flour mills on subsidised rates of Rs465 per 40 kg. Till last month, the monthly wheat supply to domestic mills stood at 0.6 million tons.

The increase in supply to mills was made in order to avert atta crisis in the domestic market by making the mills grind more. But it is not helping as prices are constantly going up in the domestic market.

In the open market, prices of wheat have touched Rs700 per 40 kg. So, there is a difference of Rs345 per 40 kg between the prices on which the government supplies wheat to mills and rates in the open market.

Analysts believe that the government is in a fix. If it increases wheat supply prices to mills, the prices of flour will further go up in the domestic market, and if it sustains the present subsidised rates, the ongoing flour crisis will also stay.

An agricultural expert told Dawn that, in fact, millers were the main beneficiary of the present crisis, and so were exporters and smugglers: they got wheat from government on subsidised rates and sold it on high rates in the domestic market and also exported it to Afghanistan.