In power sector, there are only three viable options namely; hydro, wind and coal. Hydro option is being thwarted due to dams’ controversy. However, more active approaches towards small hydro power such as the one being handled by Sarhad Hydel Development Organisation (SHYDO), could add several thousand megawatts of hydro power at comparatively cheaper rates of 5-6 cents per unit.

Wind power is no more a futuristic form of energy and has almost become competitive with traditional fossil power in most of Europe and parts of United States, where higher wind speeds are available. However, only 13 per cent of the world area is blessed with high wind speed. Most of the world especially Asia has medium to low wind speed regime including India, which has installed about 6,000 MW of wind power over the last 10 years. Germany, Spain and Denmark have respectively installed 18,428 MW, 10,027MW, 3,122 MW. The obvious advantage of wind power is that no fuel is required to run it.

However, capital investment cost in wind is generally twice as much as fossil plants and capacity factor as low as one-third of the conventional power plants. In the light of nearly $100 per barrel price of oil, and no end to escalation in sight, a little support and subsidy to this fuel-free power source in its infancy may be in order.

Wind power capital investment costs in India are 30–40pc lower than elsewhere in the world, due to local content and cheap labour. Same is possible here in Pakistan, through appropriate government intervention and support – making wind power ultimately less costly than conventional power.

In Pakistan, traditionally economy has been plagued by trade deficits. The honeymoon period of 9/11 which accentuated dollar in-flow being no more, one has to look for ways and means of reducing imports. Today the largest foreign exchange drain is caused by energy import. Wind coal and hydel power would go a long way towards voiding this gap. AEDB has framed a good policy. Had they been able to launch a demonstration project of only 10 MW, ice would have been broken much earlier on this front. Fortunately investors have started taking interest and some breakthrough may be achieved in this sector soon.

Coal is the only fossil fuel left after the exhaustion of local gas resources, oil being too expensive and only viable for automotive purposes. Wholesale consumption of natural gas was not a very good idea, but was probably, resorted to due to the urgencies of the situation. Fortunately, the government has banned the use of natural gas in new power plants. For automotive sector, oil would remain a necessity. Successive governments have done well to promote and substitute CNG. Perhaps even more should be done.

Internationally coal produces 33–40pc of world electricity and more than 60pc of that of the US, in Europe coal has even a higher share. In India 70pc of all power is from coal. Coal power has always been the cheapest and most reliable. In the US, unit generation cost has been 3.5 cents and in Europe around 5-5.5 cents. However, it appears that due to exhaustion of other fossil fuels, coal’s demand would increase and hence the price despite talk of environment and global warming.

Against a back drop of $30 per ton international price, coal prices have touched $55–70 per ton. It is yet to be seen whether price variation is cyclical or there would be a persistent long- term trend of increase in coal price. It appears that in Pakistan the power generation based on imported coal was conceived during times of cheaper international coal. Their attraction would go down as soon as some movement is visible in the development of local coal.

It is interesting to note that traditional coal producers and exporters, China and India, would become net importers in coming years. Electricity demand would outstrip the production rate of coal in these countries, even though the coal resources may be abundant in the seams in these countries.

India’s coal reserves are almost of the same size as Pakistan. In fact in per capita terms, we are richer than India in this respect. India has sub bituminous coal while Pakistan has brown.

For power plant purposes, lignite is considered equally feasible. Thar’s abundant coal can sustain several hundred thousand MW of electric power for a century or more. In the next five years, India plans to add large MW coal complexes of 4000 MW each to produce some 20,000 MW of coal power, to an already installed capacity of some 50,000 MW. In fact soon India’s coal power capacity would surpass 100,000 MW.

Coal is a very attractive option for Pakistan. Enough of studies reports and seminars have been done. The time is of action. It requires at least five years to put a green field coal power plant on stream; so earlier the better. Unfortunately, we had had an overdose of privatisation and private investment. In new areas, private sector is always shy and shaky for obvious reason. Even in the US, Department of Energy (DOE) makes public sector investments and subsidies for new technologies in the energy sector. In India the entire coal business is in public sector.

Even if private sector ventures into such areas, it demands and builds in unaffordably high risk premiums, which are to be ultimately paid and afforded by users, affecting their welfare and competitiveness.

Instead of waiting for the private sector and affording undue premiums, government would be well advised to make public sector investments and subsidies in installing demonstration projects and infrastructure for coal and wind, especially the former.

In wind support for local content would be needed to enhance its economics. In coal a public sector investment of only a few hundred million dollars would start up activity in coal power cycle. A demonstration project of 250 MW capacity with integrated mechanised coal mining along with infrastructure development is all that is required. On policy front, government is reportedly deliberating on coal policy and consultant’s assistance has been sought towards this end. A coal policy with a strong component of coal power and factoring in public sector investment would be received gratefully by the stake holders, and people at large.

It is rather unfortunate that despite traditionally cordial and beneficial relationship with Chinese and their remarkable expertise in coal power sector, no commercial deal in coal projects could be finalised, despite several initiatives in the past. Are Chinese too busy or have become demanding capitalists or we lack cohesion and commitment.

Sindh’s nationalist forces need not be concerned of Thar region being inundated by non- locals, due to massive activity in the coal sector. One 1000 MW power plant would require only 1000-1500 persons, including 600–1000 miners, if modern productive mining equipment is employed. Traditional mining on the other hand, is labour intensive, but even there low skill requirements would facilitate induction of local manpower. Government should also sort out the royalty issue, if there is any, at the earliest.

Finally, another important source of energy surprisingly is conservation. One MW of energy saved and conserved is better than adding an equal capacity. It is worth investing in conservation, especially now that power investments have become unduly expensive due to demand increase worldwide. Despite being a poor country, energy waste and inefficiency is rampant.

Uncomfortably, low temperatures in government offices and banks, and in general else where, in scorching weather outside are a terse reminder. We have one of the worst building sectors of the world in terms of energy waste. The government could act more responsibly, build or adapt more energy efficient building itself and encourage or bind others to follow the same. Alas, in an economy where largely, profit is charged rather than being earned, pursuit of efficiency is rare.