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Published 09 Jan, 2008 12:00am

US likely to retain its Pakistan policy despite election

WASHINGTON, Jan 8: Despite the usual rhetoric that accompanies all elections, there does not seem to be a major difference in how the current administration deals with Pakistan and how those contending for the 2008 presidential elections in the United States plan to deal with it.

Key opposition politicians and US government officials both say that Pakistan needs more democracy and that the United States should reach out to the Pakistani people and not confine itself to individuals.

But both groups also want President Pervez Musharraf to stay in power, although they do want him to share power with opposition politicians.

The policy of status quo reflects the US fear that any change could destabilise a nuclear-armed nation, which could have serious repercussions for South Asia and beyond.

“We are going to continue to work with President Musharraf,” said a State Department spokesman Tom Casey. “We’re also going to continue to work with the Pakistan People’s Party and other moderate, democratic elements in Pakistan to try and bring us all together” to achieve the common goal to “see Pakistan emerge as a moderate, modern Islamic country.”

“Who would take his place, how would that ever be worked out? This is not a country which has a history of peaceful successions,” said a leading Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton while explaining why she does not want President Musharraf to step down.

Senator Barack Obama, another major contender who is so far ahead of Ms Clinton in the race for Democratic nomination, stirred some controversy with his inflammatory statements on Pakistan.

But US political commentators later pointed out that Mr Obama’s assertion that, as president, he would “press them (the Pakistani government) to do more to take on Al Qaeda in their territory,” and that “if they could not or would not do so, and we had actionable intelligence, then I would strike,” is “essentially the Bush doctrine.

In a recent television interview, President Bush said that he would “absolutely” order US troops into Pakistani territory “to bring Osama (bin Laden) to justice.”

But he also noted that “Pakistan is a sovereign nation” and the US has no intention to violate the sovereignty of an allied state.

In a presidential debate before Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire, Mr Obama also stressed this point, saying “We have to, as much as possible, get Pakistan’s agreement before we act. And that’s always going to be the case.”

Two Republican presidential contenders, Senator John McCain and Mitt Romney, said that if elected they would follow the Bush administration’s policy of giving large amounts of aid to Mr Musharraf, a leader they believe can provide stability and fight terrorism in the nuclear-armed Muslim nation.

“Musharraf has done most of the things we wanted him to do,” said Mr McCain. He added that Pakistan “was a failed state before he came to power.”

Although other candidates who are less likely to win the presidential race, such as Bill Richardson, also explained how they would like the US to abandon Mr Musharraf and instead rebuild relations with the Pakistani people, none of the leading candidates went into such details.

The Bush administration, on the other hand, appears committed to its current diplomatic strategy: encourage Mr Musharraf to hold parliamentary elections as fairly as possible, and quietly support his increasingly tenuous grip on power.

And to strengthen his grip on power, officials at the White House and the State Department have been urging Mr Musharraf to share his power with politicians, particularly those from the People’s Party.

In recent media interviews, US official acknowledged that Washington did play a key role in arranging a power-sharing deal between Mr Musharraf and the slain prime minister, Benazir Bhutto.

America’s two most influential newspapers — Washington Post and the New York Times — reported this week that the Bush administration wants Islamabad to respect the deal despite Ms Bhutto’s death and make some working arrangement with the new PPP leadership.

On the other hand, Marvin Weinbaum, a former Pakistan analyst at the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence, says that Washington is slowly but surely warming up to another former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif.

The US “recognises that, very likely if there is going to be a viable and acceptable leader of the opposition in the near future, it’s going to be Nawaz Sharif,” he said.

In the past, Washington shunned Mr Sharif because of his perceived links to religious parties but analysts in the US say he will be acceptable if he agrees to join a power-arrangement with the army, with or without Mr Musharraf.

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