TEHRAN: There is a mood of change ahead of elections to an Iranian parliament now dominated by backers of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, even if no one expects the pro-reform opposition to make a sweeping comeback.

Hardline state bodies, which disqualified most pro-reformers in the 2004 race, have thrown down the gauntlet again, barring hundreds of reformists from running in the March 14 vote seen as a referendum on Ahmadinejad’s economic and foreign policies.Even so, reformists’ hopes are high they will make modest gains after their 2004 drubbing and that those who back Ahmadinejad will suffer in part because of inflation that has soared into double digits under the president’s watch.

Power in Iran ultimately lies with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, so the result will not herald any big shift in foreign or nuclear policy. But it will influence debate and may indicate Ahmadinejad’s 2009 re-election prospects.

“It (parliament) will not be dominated by them (hardliners) 100 per cent because people are unhappy and unsatisfied with their policies,” one pro-reform politician said.

“People don’t want the situation to continue. They will vote for change ... But I am not very sure the Tehran spring will return, maybe that is not possible.”

The politician was referring to the era following the election of former President Mohammad Khatami in 1997 that led to an easing in social freedoms and broader public debate.

A driver for change, analysts say, is Ahmadinejad’s failure to fully deliver on vows to share Iran’s oil wealth more fairly.

The president may have spent Iran’s windfall oil earnings with gusto but unemployment is stubbornly high at around 10 per cent and inflation has hit 19 per cent, hurting the poor the most, the voters he courted in the 2005 presidential race. His support in outlying provinces, where there has been tangible change from his largesse, may be secure but in cities grumbling about rising rents and food prices grows louder.

“Society in Iran is very sensitive to inflation. For every percentage point of inflation hundreds of thousands fall below the poverty line,” analyst Saeed Laylaz said.

“The government will adopt new decisions and I believe this trend (of inflation) will be controlled,” said presidential aide Aliakbar Javanfekr. He said he expected a change in parliament’s make-up but not a swing back to reformists.

Reformists, who vowed social and political change, lost parliament and the presidency in 2005 in part because of disillusionment over their ability to deliver on their pledges.They were also blamed for economic shortcomings.

Politically, the opposition has put its house in order to win back seats in the 290-seat assembly.

Reformists have realigned with pragmatists like allies of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a central figure in Iranian politics for three decades who has been adept at changing tack when the mood suits.

In the 2004 election, some radical reformists urged a voter boycott. No such voices are heard now. Cleric Mehdi Karoubi, head of a leading reformist party, says they have learned not to hand victory to rivals and are urging a high turnout.

The defeat of Ahmadinejad’s allies in December 2006 in local council elections has emboldened the president’s opponents.

Although there are parties and voter lists, party lines are often blurred and party discipline is limited. There are also no reliable opinion polls, making predicting an outcome difficult in the country of 70 million and more than 40 million voters.—Reuters