ATTOCK, Feb 8: The million dollar question that is being asked in the coming electoral run is that whether the district which gave Islamabad its last prime minister can also return his patron to occupy the marble palace hidden behind the Presidency on the Constitution Avenue.

Situated on the confluence of Punjab and NWFP, Attock district has long been considered as the gateway to Central Asia. It has an area of 68,561 sq.kms and a population of about 1.265 million (1998 Census) with a total of 8,54,873 registered voters including 3,94,795 women.

The district has an agrarian economy as almost 50 per cent of the population is engaged in farming while the rest are also associated with agriculture in one way or the other. The district was established in 1904 under the name of Campbellpur and was rechristened as Attock in 1978 after the famous Attock Fort that Akbar the Great had established in 1581. Now for long it has been used as a high profile prison for political opponents of governments in power. Its recent inmates have been former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Asif Zardari. Now both the former inmates as leaders of PML-N and PPP are in the field for the coming elections and seek to end the rule of the King’s Party which in its turn hopes to sweep all three National Assembly seats of the district from one of which it had Shaukat Aziz, its Prime Minister, got elected in the 2004 by-election. The seat, NA-59 Attock-III, was specially got vacated for him through the resignation of Mrs Eman Waseem, daughter of district nazim, Maj (retd) Tahir Sadik.

Now, once again this impoverished southern district of Punjab is in the news as another prime ministerial hopeful, the former Punjab chief minister, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi — is running for NA-58 Attock-II. The King’s party regards it as a safe haven with the district nazim, being the candidate’s brother-in-law. They want to make Attock their family fiefdom as the other two National Assembly seats are also their targets.

Eman Waseem, the niece of the Chaudhrys, and her spouse, Chaudhry Waseem Gulzar, are contesting NA-57 and NA-59 respectively. There may not be another such district where all NA constituencies are being targeted by members of the same family. But there are difficulties ahead to thwart such high ambitions.

Despite having all the advantages of being the King’s party the traditional Biradari factor is going to play its part together with the presence of the two major political parties, PPP and PML-N, challenging the Chaudhrys’ fiefdom plan.

The electoral position of the three NA constituencies is somewhat like this:

NA-57 Attock-1: In 2002, seven candidates had contested the seat which was won by Malik Amin Aslam of PML-Q (39,735 votes) and Sheikh Suleman of PML-N coming second with 23,866 votes. In this constituency, 1,05,729 votes were polled of the registered 2,43,306 votes yielding a good 43.46 per cent turnout.

For 2008, eight candidates are in the run but tough contest is being expected between four rivals — Amin Aslam, Eman Waseem (Independent), Sheikh Aftab Ahmed (PML-N) and Advocate Syed Azmat Ali Bukhari (PPP). While MQM, has, for the first time in the election history of the district, fielded its candidate, Advocate Syed Munirul Haq.

Interestingly there is no PML-Q candidate after Amin Aslam returned its ticket on the party’s lack of response on his demand for Ms Eman’s withdrawal from the contest. She is Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain’s niece and is contesting as an independent candidate.

NA-58 ATTOCK-II: In election-2002, six candidates fought for this seat, which was won by veteran politician — Malik Allah Yar Khan of PML-Q by bagging 89,108 votes, while Malik Sohail Khan of PML-N was runner-up with 40,897 votes. Allah Yar is not contesting this time due to illness. In this constituency, 1,56,440 votes out of a total 2,74,639 votes were cast, giving a high participation rate of 56.96 per cent.

Now five candidates are in the field including Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi who would face tough fight from two young aspirants — Sardar Shahnawaz Khan (PPP) and Malik Sohail Khan (PML-N). It is thought that if PPP and PML-N should make seat adjustment, it can prove a big upset for the former chief minister of Punjab. The anti-Q League and anti-district nazim lobbies are actively pursuing this goal.

Malik Suhail is enjoying the support of the majority in NA-58 and wants PPP to withdraw in his favour while PML-N should back the PPP’s candidate Sardar Saleem Haidar in NA-59 Attock-III, who is being regarded as a strong candidate against PML-Q.

NA-59 ATTOCK-III: In 2002, five candidates contested which was won by Eman Waseem obtaining 65,576 votes. Dr Sikandar Hayat of PPP was the runner-up.

In this constituency, 1,32,598 votes were polled out of 2,36,272 votes giving a participation rate of 56.12 per cent. Ms Eman Waseem had resigned from her seat to accommodate Shaukat Aziz, who won the by-election on Aug 18, 2004 by getting 76,161 votes against 29,443 votes of his rival, Sikandar Hayat. In the by-election, 1,09,091 votes were cast out of 2,38,469 registered votes giving a turnout of 45.74 per cent.

Now four candidates are in the field and hard contest is expected among Waseem Gulzar (PML-Q), Advocate Malik Asif (PML-N) and Saleem Haider (PPP). Like NA-58, the anti-Q forces are also active for seat adjustment between PPP and PML-N as another outsider is contesting under the king’s party umbrella. Saleem Haider of PPP is being considered the favourite.

PML-N is therefore under pressure to withdraw its candidate in his favour to ensure one to one contest on this seat. However the PML-Q election wing, led by district nazim, is keeping strict vigilance over the contacts of PPP and PML-N to counter any seat adjustment plans against the PML-Q.

Although Attock district had sent Shaukat Aziz to the Prime Minister’s House last time, only time would tell it can repeat that feat.