BRUSSELS: In chaperoning Kosovo to independence, the European Union faces a massive test not only of its international credibility but also its ability to build a new state, according to analysts and experts.

When the Serbian province breaks away — a formal declaration of independence is expected as soon as on Sunday — the EU will be left to prop up a poor nation with high crime and unemployment as it manages internal divisions over whether to recognise Kosovo and greater tensions with Serbia and Russia.

“This is a very delicate situation. With Kosovo we are opening a Pandora’s box really,” said Vasilis Margaras at the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies think tank.

“We recognise one entity of a sovereign state and this opens up all kinds of different scenarios,” he said.

Daniel Korski, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), warned: “Unless it can deal with a small country in its backyard, the EU can’t be the kind of global player it wants to be.” At the heart of the EU’s actions lies the stark realisation that a failure to maintain security in the Balkans again — following the bloody breakup of former Yugoslavia in the 1990s — could bring dire consequences.

As if in proof, European nations have united to ensure security does not break down and almost all are contributing to a vast justice mission to be sent to Kosovo to ease its transition to independence.

However they have struggled to agree on whether to recognise this new state, with nations like Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Slovakia and Spain opposed, most due to problems with their own separatists.

A core group of big EU states — Britain, France, Germany and Italy — are expected to recognise quickly, almost in concert with the United States, dragging the others along in their wake.

Despite this division, Alain Deletroz, at the International Crisis Group, said “the EU has shown unity beyond our expectations,” and that it has done so through a very pragmatic approach.

“The pragmatism here consists to say A: we approve the mission. B: the Union (as a whole) is not asked to recognise” Kosovo immediately after it breaks away.

But endorsing the mission will prove far simpler than carrying it out and following through for what Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, a key mediator in the Balkans in the 1990s, has said would be a “long period of time.”

“The real problems are ahead of us,” he said.

Kosovo has unemployment levels that Bildt compared to the Gaza Strip, and this has contributed to a deep despair among people who are unsure about their futures. Corruption is also a major problem.

Initial teething troubles will be dealt with by the 2,000-strong mission the EU is ready to deploy imminently to help bolster Kosovo’s institutions, and train and mentor police, judges and customs officials.

The mission will help the new state’s authorities deal with the new powers it will take from the UN Mission in Kosovo, which has administered the province since 1999.

Serbia also poses a major problem. Responsible in large part for the breakup of Yugoslavia, Belgrade must be encouraged by Brussels to follow a European track and away from its nationalist past if security in the Balkans is to be maintained.

“Serbia is vital to the region. If Kosovo is vital one time, Serbia is vital 10 times because it has links with Republika Srpska, with Bosnia, with Croatia, with all sorts of players,” said Margaras.

Beyond the region, Europe’s already-strained relations with Serbia’s close ally Russia will also be tested.

By acting outside the UN Security Council’s umbrella to deploy its mission, the EU has angered Moscow and fuelled other tensions like Russia’s powerful use of its energy might.

Indeed Korski said the issue of Kosovo “has become symptomatic of a wider deterioration in our relationship” with Russia.—AFP