WITH “the mania of counting noses” (as the celebrated philosopher Nietzsche has described elections and democracy) only a couple of days away, the election campaign in lower Sindh has yet to gather steam. Except for the PPP and MQM nominees, all the candidates are just going through the motions in a ritualistic manner.

Before the tragic incident of Dec 27, the election activities were in full swing. For all practical purposes, four parties — PPP, MQM, PML-F and PML-Q — are the main contenders in Sindh and it will be no exaggeration to say that it will be the People’s Party against the rest.

If the elections are held in a free, fair and transparent manner, there is a likelihood that the PPP will win the constituencies in Sindh’s rural areas. To be sure, the PML-Q continues to misuse the state machinery as it tries to win the elections. But it is facing an uphill task in the face of the PPP phenomenon.

However, the situation in Hyderabad district is quite different. The district has three National Assembly and six provincial assembly seats. NA-219 and NA-220 are urban seats which, except for one or two occasions, have always been bagged by the MQM since 1988.

Whether one likes it or not, voting in Hyderabad city has always been done on ethnic lines. The “singular distinction” of the MQM is that the people will vote even for a lamppost if it represents Altaf Hussain.

It was only in the last general election, of 2002, when MQM received a jolt when its candidate and former mayor of Hyderabad, Aftab Ahmed Shaikh, was defeated by the senior vice-president of the JUP, Sahibzada Abul Khair Mohammad Zubair, for a Hyderabad city seat. One provincial assembly seat was also won by a JUP candidate, Abdur Rehman Rajput, who joined PML-Q in the last days of the Sindh Assembly.

However, MQM has consolidated its position and is poised to win both the National Assembly and four provincial assembly seats. There may be some contest for PS-49 where PPP has put up a strong candidate, Abdul Jabbar Khan, who has the same ethnic background and is also the former taluka nazim of Latifabad.
 

Constituency	Voter turnout (2002)
NA-218	40.95 per cent
Matiari-Hyderabad
NA-219	30.71 per cent
Hyderabad-I
NA-220	33.6 per cent
Hyderabad-II
NA-221	31.17 per cent
Hyderabad-Matiari
NA-222	35.97 per cent
T.M. Khan-Hyderabad-Badin
NA-223	36.62 per cent
Tando Allahyar-Matiari
NA-224	38.88 per cent
Badin-T.M. Khan-I
NA-225	37.7 per cent
Badin-T.M. Khan-II
NA-231	36.14 per cent
Jamshoro
NA-232	37.32 per cent
Dadu-I
NA-233	35.55 per cent
Dadu-II
NA-237	36.86 per cent
Thatta-I
NA-238	41.53per cent
Thatta-II

The third National Assembly seat of the district — NA-221 — is a rural constituency where PPP has put up its former MNA Ameer Ali Shah Jamote against PML-Q’s Syed Shahabuddin Shah Hussaini who is also backed by the MQM.

For the two provincial assembly seats of this constituency, PPP’s former MPA Zahid Ali Bhurgari is pitted against MQM’s Aziz Soomro for PS-47 while PPP’s former MPA Pir Amjad Shah Jilani is contesting Mir Sher Mohammad Talpur of PML-Q for PS-50.

In the 2002 general election, this National Assembly seat and its provincial assembly seats were bagged by PPP and unless something dramatic happens, the PPP will emerge victorious this time too.

Matiari district, which was created three years ago, has always remained a PPP stronghold and the Makhdooms of Hala have always won from there. The district now has one National Assembly and two provincial assembly seats — NA-218 and PS-43 and PS-44.

Makhdoom Mohammad Amin Fahim, the vice-chairman of the PPP who is also the spiritual leader of the Sarwari Jamaat, has never lost any elections since 1988 there. This time, he is facing PML-N’s Makhdoom Shahnawaz, who is being supported by PML-F on NA-218.

For PS-43, Makhdoom Fahim’s son Jamiluzzaman is contesting PML-F’s Syed Shah Mohammad Shah while for PS-44, Makhdoom Amin will be facing Syed Taimoor Ali Shah Jamote, son of former senator Sardar Zulfiqar Ali Shah Jamote.

Some competition is expected on this seat but the Makhdooms (PPP) are poised to win NA-218 and PS-43. There is not much doubt about PS-44.

According to insiders, Benazir Bhutto had asked Makhdoom Amin Fahim to contest for PS-44, so that if the exigencies demanded, he could be nominated as Sindh chief minister.

In Tando Mohammad Khan district, PPP has again nominated its former MNA Syed Naveed Qamaruzzaman Shah for NA-222, who will face PML-Q’s Pir Sajjad Jan Sarhandi.

This district has two provincial assembly seats — PS-53 and PS-54.

On PS-53, PPP’s Mohsin Shah Bukhari is pitted against Mir Ali Nawaz Talpur of PML-Q while PPP’s Abdul Karim Soomro will be facing Mohammad Kamil Shah of the PML-Q. Although the Mirs and the Pirs have always held sway over Tando Muhammad Khan but the people by and large are with the PPP.

An interesting contest is likely in Tando Allahyar district for NA-223 where two women politicians are contesting the polls. PPP’s candidate Shamshad Sattar Bachani will be facing Adeeba Gul Magsi of the Azad Magsi Ittehad and PML-Q.

On the two provincial assembly seats, PPP candidate and former MPA Syed Ali Nawaz Shah Rizvi is pitted against Mir Mohammad Ghulam alias Mir Pappu of Azad Magsi Ittehad and PML-Q.

On the second provincial assembly seat PS-53, former Sindh minister, Dr Irfan Gul Magsi, brother of Adeeba Gul Magsi will be facing Imdad Pitafi of PPP. Although Tando Allahyar is considered a PPP stronghold but the Magsis during the last five years have made some inroads. The district nazim of Tando Allahyar is none other than Dr Raheela Gul Magsi, the sister of Adeeba Gul Magsi and Irfan Gul Magsi. She has carried out sizeable development works in the district but according to observers, people still support the PPP.

Jamshoro is also a new district carved out of the Dadu district. It has one National Assembly (NA-231) and three provincial assembly seats (PS-71, PS-72 and PS-73).

Malik Asad Sikandar who is the district nazim Jamshoro, is the uncrowned king of this district as he is the Sardar of over 70 tribes and sub-tribes. His brother-in-law and former MNA Nawab Abdul Ghani Talpur is a PPP candidate who will be contesting from NA-231 against chairman of the Sindh United Party Syed Jalal Mehmood Shah, who enjoys the support of PML-Q.

On PS-71, PPP candidate Sikandar Shoro will be facing Jalal Mehmood Shah. On PS-72, Diyaram of PPP is pitted against Malik Changez Khan of PML-Q while on PS-73, former federal minister Liaquat Ali Jatoi of PML-Q will be facing, Syed Murad Ali Shah, a PPP candidate and former MPA and son of former Sindh chief minister, Syed Abdullah Shah.

Badin district has two National Assembly (NA-224 and NA-225) and five provincial assembly seats namely PS-55, PS-56, PS-57, PS-58 and PS-59.

On NA-224, PPP candidate, Ghulam Ali Nizamani will be contesting against PML-F nominee Ali Akbar Nizamani.

NA-225 is the second seat in the defunct Hyderabad division after Tando Allahyar district where two women candidates are again pitted against each another. Former MNA Dr Fehmida Mirza of PPP is contesting against senator Bibi Yasmin Shah of the PML-Q.

On PS-55, Mohammad Hassan alias Mir Babu Talpur of the PPP is pitted against PML-Q’s Dada Halepoto.

On PS-56, PML-Q’s Mir Allah Bux Talpur has joined the PPP and now the PML-Q is supporting an independent candidate, Abdur Razzaq Nizamani against PPP’s Basheer Ahmed Sirewal.

On PS-57, Dr Zulfiqar Mirza of PPP, who according to some insiders will be the next chief minister of Sindh, is facing PML-Q’s candidate, Syed Ali Bux Shah alias Pappu Shah.

In PS-58, Dr Sikandar Mandhro of PPP is pitted against PML-Q candidate, Sain Bux Jamali while on PS-59, PPP’s Ali Nawaz Chandio will be facing Ismail Rahu of PML-Q.

While the district is a strong fort of PPP perhaps there might be some contest on PS-59 because Ismail Rahu is the son of late Fazil Rahu who was a great hari leader.

Dadu district Perhaps is the most volatile district after Thatta.

It has two National Assembly and four provincial assembly seats. Liaquat Jatoi himself is contesting on PML-Q ticket from NA-232 against PPP candidate Rafique Ahmed Jamali while his one brother Ehsan Ali Jatoi is facing PPP candidate Talat Iqbal Mahessar on NA-233 while his second brother, Sadaqat Ali Jatoi is pitted against PPP candidate Fayaz Ahmed Butt on PS-77.

On PS-74, Pir Mazharul Haq of PPP is pitted against Syed Mohammad Shah of PML-Q while on PS-75, Ghulam Shah Jilani, Pir of Naing Sharif of PPP is facing PML-Q candidate Dr Banday Ali Leghari.

On PS-76, PPP candidate Imran Leghari is facing PML-Q candidate Haji Ameer Bux Junejo. It is not a question if the PPP will emerge victorious in Dadu district, but the big question is can Liaquat Jatoi afford to lose the elections.

Wherever he goes, he is haunted by the slogans of ‘Jeay Bhutto’ and his cavalcades are stoned by youth. Cases and counter cases have been registered at several police stations. If adequate security arrangements are not made on the election day, bloodshed cannot be ruled out.

Thatta district, which was also once a part of the defunct Hyderabad division, is one of the districts from where the PPP founder and late prime minister of Pakistan, Z.A.Bhutto had at one time contested elections as it was considered a PPP stronghold.

With the passage of time, Shirazis have virtually converted Thatta into their personal fief. Three sons of caretaker provincial minister for food and agriculture Syed Aijaz Ali Shah Shirazi, one son and two nephews of district nazim Syed Shafqat Hussain Shah Shirazi are contesting elections on two National Assembly and four provincial assembly seats while they have doled out one provincial assembly seat to their old ally, Rais Mohammad Ali Khan Malkani.

The National Assembly seats are NA-237 and NA-238 while the provincial assembly seats are PS-84, PS-85, PS-86, PS-87 and PS-88.

In the last general elections (2002), PPP’s candidate Sassui Palijo and she is again contesting on the same seat.

It is a foregone conclusion that elections will not be free and fair in Thatta district as the election rules are being openly violated. The prevailing situation can be gauged from the fact that the provincial caretaker minister for food and agriculture, Aijaz Shah Shirazi, addressed a huge election meeting on Thursday which had perhaps become necessary for the Shirazis to counter the effects of the public meeting addressed by PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari only a few days ago.

It will perhaps be pertinent to mention here that it is not the voters who decide the course of election but those who count the votes.