MULTAN, Feb 22: A variety of reasons stand behind the defeat of political bigwigs, mostly from the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) and a few from the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), in south Punjab.

Among those routed out in the polls in south Punjab include: former chief minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi, Makhdoom Ahmed Alam Anwar, Awais Leghari, Nasrullah Dreshak, Makhdoom Ahmed Mahmood, Nawabzada Mansoor Khan and Fakhr Imam.

Mr Elahi was defeated by Chaudhry Saud Majeed of the PML-N from NA-187, Bahawalpur. Even though the PPP fielded Iftikhar Ahmed Cheema but later the party decided to support PML-N’s Mr Majeed seeing his strong position in the area so that the arch rival was defeated at every cost.

The defeat of Mr Elahi was a surprise for the political analysts, who earlier in their observations had declared Mr Elahi favourite. In his tenure as chief minister, Mr Elahi took interest in the development of the constituency and spent billions on the development of the area so that the constituency was a safe sailing for him in the elections.

Malik Habibullah Bhutta, Bahawalpur-based columnist, is however, not surprised at the defeat of former chief minister. He says the major problem of the Seraiki belt is the shortage of irrigation water created due to mismanagement of the former government.

He said the government had allotted lands to outsiders at a large scale without arranging additional irrigation water. The mass allotment reduced the water share of old farmers while the new farmers were given plenty of water.

He said the government did another blunder by providing electricity to remote areas without arranging additional energy resources.

The defeat of PML-Q’s Makhdoom Ahmed Alam Anwar from NA-192, Rahim Yar Khan, by PPP candidate Allama Hamid Saeed Kazmi is being consider an upset.

Makhdoom Anwar remained victorious from the constituency most of the time except in 1997 when he lost the seat to Makhdoom Ahmed Mehmood.

PML-Q’s Makhdoom Mahmood also faced defeat from PPP’s Makhdoom Shahabuddin from NA-194.

Shafqat Mehmood, a senior journalist from Liaqatpur, said the constituents avenged these two Makhdooms for their arrogance. Besides their attitude, the other factor contributing to their low performance are the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, army operation at Lal Masjid in Islamabad, shortage of wheat and flour, loadshedding and increasing prices of commodities.

He said Allama Kazmi was not a new face for the people of the constituency as he had a large number of devotees there and was a frequent visitor of the area. He said he visited the area to deliver sermons at religious gatherings. After his victory, Allama Kazmi has decided to settle in Liaqatpur from Multan.

He said that one devotee had offered him two acres at Khan Bela for his residence while another devotee from Junpur not only offered him two acres but also a house.

He said that people of Liaqatpur had given a chance to Makhdoom Mehmood in the past but he also failed to fulfil the expectations of people.

The defeat of PPP candidate for NA-156 Syed Fakhr Imam from PML-Q’s Muhammad Raza Hayyat Hiraj is the result of his differences with his brother-in-law Syed Khawar Ali Shah, Rana Abdul Sattar a political analyst from Kabirwala says.

He said the differences between Mr Imam and Mr Shah surfaced in 2002 when the latter had announced contesting the election for the slot of district nazim of Khanewal but Mr Imam refused to support him.

He said Mr Imam had maintained his political homogeny in the area with the help of Mr Shah. But Mr Imam’s selfishness had made Mr Shah his worst political adversary.

He said Mr Shah had first introduced Mr Imam in the local body politics and helped him become the Multan district council chairman in the early 80s. This paved the way for his role in national politics as he became the member of Majlis-i-Shoora in the Ziaul Haq regime and later federal minister for local bodies.

He said Mr Imam’s non-friendly attitude with the people of his constituency led him to defeat but Mr Shah and the victor from the area, Raza Hayyat Hiraj, were always available to their voters. Mr Shah also maintained his connections with the public.

He said due to the opposition by Mr Shah, Mr Imam had lost his native Qatalpur polling station while his provincial candidate Mukhtar Hussain Shah, who always won against the Hiraj group, also lost his seat.

The defeat of tribal giant Awais Leghari, the son of former president Farooq, from PML-Q’s Saifuddin Khosa from NA-172, Dera Ghazi Khan, is being called the mother of all upsets in the region.

Mr Khosa, the son of PML-N Punjab President Zulfiqar Khosa, defeated the former federal minister for communications and information technology.

Dr Naeem Baloch, a political analyst, said Mr Leghari remained cut-off from his constituency in the period of his ministry. He said even though Mr Leghari had given jobs to the people but they were not from his constituency.

He said the Legharis failed to run their election campaign properly and did not try to compensate the voters and remove their distrust.

He said that people wanted change and the media had raised awareness among the masses regarding their rights.

Another constituency, NA-172, that has been safe bastion of the Legharis for the last three decades seems tilting towards the anti-Forooq Leghari group, if the results of the 2008 elections are anything.

The fate of Mr Leghari will be decided on Saturday (today) in a re-poll at two polling stations. In the past, the constituency posted Mr Leghari with huge margin to parliament.

This time, a duo of PPP’s Shabir Leghari and PML-N’s Hafiz Abdul Karim stole the lion’s share from the elder Leghari’s vote bank. He is just over 500 votes ahead of the PML-N candidate.

The Election Commission withheld the result of NA-172 on Feb 19 for alleged rigging on a polling station of Khar. Mr Leghari obtained 42,140 votes, Hafiz Abdul Karim 41,612 and Shabir Leghari 35,577 votes.

Educationist Prof Sharif Ashraf said after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, a large number of PPP supporters, who earlier were scattered, cast their vote collectively and showed their presence in the district.

He said that despite the opposition by the elders of the Leghari tribe, women in Ranghan, Fort Minro, Choti and Sakhi Sarwar revolted against the decision of the elders of their tribe and cast their to the PPP candidates.

He said the Leghari had never won polling stations in the settled areas but he always secured victory in the tribal area.

He said the murder of Baloch nationalist Akbar Bugti in the military operation was also a factor behind the dwindling popularity of the Laghrai.

Nasrullah Dreshak lost both National Assembly seats — NA-174 and NA-175 – in Rajanpur. His son Hasnain Bahadur Dreshak, also a former provincial minister, candidate for PP-248, also stands among the losers.

According to advocate Zaffarullah Lund, the constituents sent the Dreshaks packing for their arrogance.

He said the Dreshak Group had made the life of their opponents miserable by using state machinery. People also believe the Dreshaks patronised criminal gangs in the area.

He said that Jaffar Leghari who defeated Mr Dreshak from NA-174 won because of his effective electioneering and his better public relation image. While Dreshak lost NA-175 against Dost Muhammad Mazari, the grandson of veteran politician Mir Balakh Sher Mazari, because of the Mazaris better electioneering.

Mr Lund said the Dreshaks despite enjoying a powerful ministry and the slot of district nazim failed to win the hearts of voters.

The defeat of both sons of the late Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan by the hand of a former union nazim has also created ripples in the region.

PPP candidate Jamshed Dasti defeated PML-Q’s Nawabzada Iftikhar and Pakistan Democratic Party’s Nawabzada Mansoor from NA-178, Muzaffargarh.

Senior journalist AB Mujahid said there existed for- and anti-Nawab family voters in the constituency. He said the situation went in the favour of the PPP candidate when the PML-N announced withdrawing its candidate Mian Ehsan Qureshi in favour of Nawabzada Mansoor.

He said that former minister Shahid Jamil Qureshi, PML-Q winning candidate for PP-25, Imran Qureshi had also supported the PPP candidate secretly while Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal winning candidate Qaswar Langrial from PP-257 openly supported the PPP candidate.

People will have to wait to see if their preference for the dark horses over heavyweights will bring about any change or the losers will make their comeback in next elections, whenever they are held.