BELGRADE (Serbia): A split in Serbia’s governing coalition over future ties with the EU is threatening to push Belgrade toward another political showdown two weeks after Kosovo declared independence, analysts say.

The dispute between Serbia’s nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and the pro-Western President Boris Tadic will eventually determine whether Serbia will continue its progress toward joining the EU or shun the West in favour of closer ties with Russia.

Political analysts predict that splits within Serbia’s shaky ruling coalition could lead to a collapse of the government and an early parliamentary election this year.

The spokesman for Kostunica’s party, Andreja Mladenovic, said on Monday the two camps should meet to discuss future strategy.

Kosovo’s declaration of independence on Feb 17 was swiftly recognised by the US and major European powers. Some EU nations have criticised Kosovo’s independence, while Russia has come out strongly in support of Serbia’s opposition to Kosovo’s independence.

Kostunica, a staunch critic of Western policies over Kosovo, blocked the signing of a political agreement with the European Union last month, saying that the bloc must first acknowledge that Kosovo is part of Serbia and not an independent nation.

Last week, Kostunica reiterated that Serbia must tell the EU that it can eventually join the union “only as a whole country,” with Kosovo included. The prime minister said all of Serbia’s politicians must unite in their policies toward the EU in order to retain the claim on Kosovo.

But pro-Western Tadic, who advocates quick EU accession regardless of Kosovo, said those who link Serbia’s EU future with Kosovo were “brutally deceiving our people” and using the issue to permanently distance Serbia from the West.

“I will not allow this to happen,” he said in a speech.

Political analysts also believe the crisis could result in the formation of an even more hard-line government that would include loyalists of late strongman Slobodan Milosevic for the first time since 2000.

The simmering differences blew wide open last week, when a pro-Western minister in Kostunica’s Cabinet accused the prime minister and his associates of pushing Serbia into isolation over Kosovo, a move he termed as “collective madness.”

Economy minister Mladjan Dinkic said Kostunica was using “Milosevic-like” methods when he unleashed a massive propaganda campaign to whip up anti-Western fury in Serbia. There were attacks on US and other Western embassies in the days after Kosovo declared independence.

Tadic won re-election in February by promising to take Serbia into the EU. But his election triumph has been overshadowed by Kosovo’s independence, and Tadic has faced criticism from liberals for his mild response to nationalist outbursts by Kostunica.Jaksic, the Politika daily analyst, said Tadic must now show resolve “so that we will not miss out on our European future.”

He said Kostunica and his followers have strong backing from Milosevic-era oligarchs, pro-Russian traditionalists and the ultra-nationalists.

“This is why middle-ground is not possible,” Bosko Jaksic, a columnist said. “Here, one side must win and the other side must lose.” Other analysts differ on how things will develop in the weeks and months to come.

Dragan Bujosevic, of the NIN weekly, predicted that Tadic and Kostunica will bide their time before undermining the shaky coalition Cabinet.

Lurking in the background, meanwhile, are the Radicals, an extreme right party that already is the single strongest political grouping in Serbia. Its leader, Tomislav Nikolic, lost to Tadic only by a narrow margin in February’s presidential ballot.

Kostunica also could switch camps and form an alliance with the Radicals, who used to rule together with Milosevic during the Balkan wars of the 1990s.

According to the latest opinion polls, the crisis over Kosovo independence has strengthened the Radicals.

But Dinkic said this should not deter the pro-Western camp from seeking an early election if Kostunica continues to block Serbia’s road toward the EU. Dinkic said the vote should then be presented as a referendum about Serbia’s future.—AP