NEW DELHI: It is a party that once counted a “bandit queen” among its lawmakers. It lost power in its home state after crime reached epidemic proportions. Its leader, a former wrestler, faces corruption probes.

It is a sign of the vagaries of India’s coalition politics that the Samajwadi Party could soon hold the balance of power in India, helping mould the fate of a trillion-dollar economy and a landmark nuclear deal with the United States.

The government appears close to jettisoning its communist allies as it presses ahead with the nuclear deal, and is trying to replace their crucial parliamentary support with the Samajwadi Party — or Socialist Party — so it can avoid early general elections.

The party, under long-time leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, a former wrestler who was once India’s defence minister, has for years dominated Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. It relies on votes of farmers from the Yadav caste and Muslims.

The party has a colourful history in one of India’s poorest, most feudal and corrupt states. “Bandit Queen” Phoolan Devi, an outlaw who rampaged through Uttar Pradesh in the 1980s, joined the Samajwadi Party before she was gunned down.

But it is also a party known for its pragmatism.

“The Samajwadi is a safe bet for Congress to retain power,” said Bhaskara Rao, a political analyst at the Centre for Media Studies. “It will be an alliance based on convenience with both sides just interested in power.” These alliances might become more common in India.

The two heavyweights — centre-left Congress and the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party — are battling to stay dominant as regional, caste-based parties gain in strength.

This is complicating policy as small outfits exercise disproportionate influence, analysts say.Samajwadi, for example, could have huge weight in deciding when the general elections, due by May 2009, will take place.

A DIFFICULT PARTNER: There is little love lost between Congress and Samajwadi. Congress party head Sonia Gandhi famously snubbed senior party member Amar Singh four years ago when she did not invite him to a dinner after deciding to form a government with the communists rather than the Samajwadi.

“He could be a difficult coalition partner. Mulayam will demand his pound of flesh,” said Atul Chandra, Uttar Pradesh editor of the Times of India. He said Singh’s demands could include protection from court investigations or cabinet posts.

The Congress and Samajwadi compete for votes in Uttar Pradesh, which is the state with the largest number of seats in the national parliament.

But in India, there is a history of alliances between former political enemies. And this time the stakes are high for both sides.

The Samajwadi has 39 seats in the national parliament, compared with 59 seats for the communist parties. The ruling coalition needs the support of 44 lawmakers to reach a majority and it hopes to also win support from a few smaller parties.

Meanwhile, Samajwadi wants support from the Congress party to battle Mayawati, the current chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.

She is known as the “Dalit Queen”, Dalits being the community at the bottom of the Hindu caste system to which she and her vote bank belong. She won power last year promising to return law and order to the state of 170 million people.

“Mulayam’s main motivation will be to have help in battling Mayawati,” said Chandra. “He is a wily, clever political leader.” While describing itself as socialist, there are few signs the Samajwadi will try to block economic reforms as the communist parties have done over the past four years.

Some analysts say it could be a one-issue alliance — just over the nuclear deal — and that the Samajwadi would refrain from interfering in any other government business.

Singh has strong links with some of the biggest business groups in Uttar Pradesh, as well as in Mumbai, where one of the party’s most important members, Amar Singh, is reported to be close to Bollywood’s biggest star, Amitabh Bachchan.—Reuters