BRUSSELS: The European Union is in a dilemma over how to respond to worsening political tension in Turkey, which is shaking political and financial stability in its largest and most difficult candidate country.

The prospect of the Constitutional Court banning the ruling AK party and barring Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan from office for alleged Islamist subversion has revived debate on whether Turkey is fit to become an EU member.

A wave of arrests, including former generals and journalists over an alleged coup plot, has also sharpened concerns about the role of the military, and in some quarters about human rights.

“Real friends of Turkey see this as a challenge and think we have to take risks and speak out,” said a senior EU source, acknowledging Europe may have little influence on events.

“Those for whom Turkey will never become a member of the EU don’t really care,” he said.

Neither supporters nor opponents of Turkish accession want to see a strategically vital Nato ally and energy hub at the hinge of Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus destabilised.

But Ankara’s biggest backers in the 27-nation bloc, such as Britain and Sweden, are most concerned about what some call a looming “judicial coup” against the elected government.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said in a speech in May: “The people who should choose the government of Turkey are its voters, not its lawyers.”

Opponents of Turkish entry sound almost relieved at seeing the country damage its own European democratic credentials.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has long opposed Turkish EU membership, arguing that the poor, secular but overwhelmingly Muslim country of 70 million is not geographically in Europe.

“Given what’s happening currently in Turkey, you can really see that the prospect of accession is becoming more distant,” a senior source in Sarkozy’s office said last week, as Paris took over the EU presidency for six months.

“If they start banning the ruling party now, that’s very interesting. That judicial novelty should be thrown at all those who wanted to accelerate Turkey’s integration into Europe,” the source said.

EUROPEAN NORMS: EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn has taken a tough line on the state prosecutor’s attempt to close the AK party, accused of seeking to establish an Islamic state. He says such a move would not be in line with European norms.

Rehn has repeatedly stated that in a European democracy, the balance between religion and secularism should be decided at the ballot box and in parliament, not in the courts.

The AK party has its roots in political Islam, but in its nearly six years in power EU officials say it has increased rather than restricted civil liberties, even though they would have wished to see more reforms in freedom of expression.

EU officials following the case note the prosecutor has refined his charges, accusing the AK party of seeking to introduce Islamic Sharia law, a charge used to outlaw the Refah (Welfare) party in the 1990s which was upheld by the European Court of Justice and makes it harder for Brussels to criticise.

Some member states have criticised Rehn privately for speaking out so strongly, either because they feel Brussels is exceeding its powers, or because they are concerned the EU seems to be favouring Erdogan in a domestic political struggle.

“The commission should not have been so present in Turkey’s internal debate,” said Dorothee Schmid, an expert on Turkey at the French Institute for International Relations.

“It should not have taken sides. It’s not so clear to see where the pro-Europeans are,” she said.

Rehn has stopped short of saying Brussels would propose suspending entry negotiations if the AK party is banned, but he has made clear there could not be business as usual and the EU would be obliged to review the accession process.

The EU negotiating framework says that in case of a serious and persistent breach of the so-called Copenhagen criteria on democracy, human rights and the rule of law, the commission or one-third of member states may seek a formal suspension. EU foreign ministers would then decide by qualified majority vote.

The senior source said Brussels was more likely to suggest an informal time-out, since the political situation in the aftermath of a ban on the AK party would probably be confused with the prospect of an early general election.

“We may have to say we expect Turkey to restore democratic legitimacy and correct errors in the political and legal system and recommit to the EU accession process and its conditions,” the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the EU executive has not yet taken a position on the issue.—Reuters