WARSAW: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s surprise decision to accelerate plans to adopt the euro currency will buttress voters’ support for his centre-right government and raises the possibility of early elections. Tusk announced this week that Poland, the largest ex-communist member state in the European Union, aims to be ready in 2011 to adopt the euro, though his officials say Poles will probably only start using the common currency in 2012.

Economists had previously said Poland was unlikely to adopt the euro before 2013 at the earliest. Many remain sceptical about the timetable, given technical and political obstacles and the turmoil sweeping global financial markets.

But in purely political terms, analysts say, Tusk’s decision is a bold move that throws the conservative, euro-sceptic Law and Justice party (PiS) of former premier Jaroslaw Kaczynski onto the defensive and exposes that party’s divisions.

“Tusk wants to be the leader of the most pro-European government in Polish history. He is probably right in calculating that the public will go along with this,” said Pawel Swieboda, head of the pro-EU demosEuropa think-tank.

“He wants to provoke Kaczynski to climb his favourite tree of euroscepticism... He is gambling the PiS will harden its stance on the EU and the euro and this will boost him (Tusk).”

Tusk, a historian, ousted the nationalistic Kaczynski in parliamentary polls last October.

Opinion polls show support for Tusk’s Civic Platform remains strong, at more than 50 per cent, about twice as much as for PiS, but critics have accused the government of resting on its laurels, taking credit for Poland’s strong economic growth while neglecting reforms urgently needed to modernise the country.

Sensitive to such charges, the government has now pledged an “October revolution” of reforms, including sales of state firms and slashing red tape. Then came the euro announcement.

“People have accused the government of lacking a strategy...of not having an ideology. They say Tusk is pro-reform but does nothing. Well now he has found an issue,” said Lena Kolarska-Bobinska, head of the Institute of Public Affairs.

“He is mobilising his pro-EU electorate... With this decision he is also appealing to the business community. The larger part of Polish society supports the euro,” she said.

Recent opinion polls have put support among Poles for euro adoption at around 52 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

Business strongly favours the euro because it would reduce their costs and improve the general investment climate.

Under EU law, all new member states are required eventually to join the euro but the timing depends on their governments.

Slovakia, Poland’s tiny southern neighbour, is set to become the 16th member of the euro zone on January 1, 2009.

The government’s euro decision carries some economic risks.

The cost of borrowing may need to rise further than otherwise would be the case as Poland battles to meet the tough inflation criteria for joining the euro zone – a fact sure to be exploited by opposition parties as the economy slows. Some also contend that Tusk’s euro move was the result of political manoeuvring rather than of a methodical, dispassionate calculation of the benefits for Poland’s economy.

“His main aides are not economists, they are public relations specialists. This decision may not have been well thought through,” said Marek Migalski, a political scientist at Silesia University.

Poland’s central bank had said it had not been consulted on the euro decision, though it has now endorsed the plan.—Reuters