JAKARTA: For most of his four years in power, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a respected reformer, looked like a shoo-in for re-election, comfortably ahead of his rival, former president Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Not any more.

The two are neck-and-neck in the opinion polls, and for Yudhoyono, the biggest obstacle could turn out to be the percentage of votes, still undecided, that parties must win in the April 9 parliamentary election to field a presidential candidate.

A decade after former president Suharto was ousted, Southeast Asia’s biggest economy is still dealing with his legacy of widespread corruption and dire business practices.

Whoever wins the next five-year term will set the pace of economic, political and social reform in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.

Under Yudhoyono, who on Sunday announced his plan to stand for re-election in 2009, Indonesia has made significant progress.

The former general appointed capable technocrats, who have shaken up key departments and delivered economic growth of 6.3 per cent in 2007, the best performance in over a decade.The anti-graft authorities have tackled a wide array of corruption cases, which according to Transparency International’s latest survey is starting to pay off. This should help restore confidence among foreigners who frequently cite bribery as a deterrent to investment.

Thanks to four years of political stability and peace, for example in several religious and secessionist hotspots, Indonesia has begun to shrug off its reputation as a chaotic, dangerous, hopeless country.

Whether Yudhoyono has a chance of winning another five-year term will depend on the results of the April parliamentary vote.

Members of parliament have been haggling over whether to keep the threshold for fielding a presidential candidate at 15 per cent, or raise it to as high as 30 per cent, a move that would limit the race to Golkar, former President Suharto’s political machine, and Megawati’s party PDI-P.

As Golkar lacks a strong presidential candidate of its own, it is widely expected to back Yudhoyono, with Vice President Jusuf Kalla from Golkar as his running mate again.

Cautious, consensus-seeker

Critics say Yudhoyono is too consensus-driven, reflecting the fact that his tiny Democratic Party relies on Golkar, and a hotchpotch of smaller parties for support in parliament.

“In his first term, he was very indecisive because he feared opposition and a fall in popularity, which would hurt his re-election chances,” said Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, chief economist at Danareksa Research Institute.

“But if he is chosen again, he won’t be as indecisive as before because he wants to leave his mark, so it should be positive.”

Megawati – the daughter of Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, whose name helped her secure the presidency from 2001 to 2004 – did little to tackle corruption.

But under Yudhoyono, several senior officials, from the central bank, local government, and state agencies, have been investigated, tried and imprisoned.

The clean-up of Indonesia’s Augean stables is nowhere near over, but some analysts say Yudhoyono, 59, has a better track record than other presidential hopefuls in this area.

“He has enough character and morality to fight corruption, but we’ll see how he goes,” said Todung Mulya Lubis, a respected lawyer on the board of Transparency International’s Indonesian chapter, who welcomed Yudhoyono’s decision to run again.

“In terms of fighting corruption, I think it will be significant because he has a commitment, although of course this commitment will be tested again and again.”—Reuters