ISLAMABAD, Oct 19: The government is likely to reduce wheat production target by about 500,000 tons due to a 50 per cent shortfall in certified seed and over 35 per cent decline in irrigation water for the Rabi crop.

“We are expecting a shortfall of 500,000 to 600,000 tons in wheat production,” an official in the ministry of food, agriculture and livestock told Dawn on Sunday.

According to the ministry, this year’s target of 23.5 million tons could not be achieved “under present circumstances” despite an increase in support price from Rs625 to Rs950 per 40 kg.

During the last season, the government had estimated 25 million tons of wheat production, but subsequently it had to admit that the actual production was around 23.3 million tons. Some independent analysts, however, put the production at 23 million tons.

Pakistan needs around one million tons of quality seed to achieve the wheat production target. But at present the government and farmers possess only 500,000 tons of certified seed.

Amidst a shortage of quality wheat seed, the Punjab government has imposed a ban on its supply to other provinces. More than 60 per cent of farmers normally get wheat seed from Punjab and the ban has pushed growers in Sindh to resort to low quality seed.

The sowing season commenced in Sindh last week.

A food ministry official said reports had been received that growers in Mirpurkhas and Sanghar had already started sowing sub-standard seed. The ban on seed supply by Punjab was affecting Sindh the most because wheat cultivation had not started yet in the NWFP and Azad Kashmir, he added.

He said the target of wheat sowing on 861,000 hectares might not be achieved due to higher prices of urea and DAP (diammonium phosphate).

He said the Punjab government had engaged the food department, police and special branch to restrict the movement of wheat seed and decided to issue permits for the purpose, but no permit had been issued so far.

The Punjab government has sought relaxation by the food ministry in the criteria for certified seeds. The official said Punjab had reported that it faced 14 per cent shortage and that some of the varieties which it had branded as quality seeds did not meet the grading criteria for certification.

Some of the Punjab seeds, the official added, suffered from four to eight per cent impurity, while certified seed needed a purity level of 99 per cent.

The seed shortage in Punjab is now being blamed on the former provincial government for its failure to procure five million tons of wheat from growers.

The present government was able procure 3.9 million tons. Later it had to procure seeds from several companies and farmers at a rate of Rs625 per 40 kg.

The farmers and seed companies had registered complaints with the food ministry and some of them even moved courts against the forced procurement by the Punjab government.

The food ministry is likely to allow Punjab to officially sell low quality seed to farmers due to the shortage, the official said.

Last year, the availability of certified wheat seed was 177,000 tons, while this season it is expected to be around 160,000 tons.